Week 1 · Final
21 – 24
Vegas Line
Troy -16.5
Total 52.5
Model Projection
TROY -13.0
TROY 88.1% win · O/U 52.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: SHSU
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +2.0 pts toward SHSU on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- TROY -6.5
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
Sam Houston — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Troy ranks #124 nationally allowing 335.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #13 run defense.
2Contain Gavin Griffin
Troy's top producer this season: 81 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Sam Houston has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Sam Houston converts 42.9% of third downs (#73 nationally) versus Troy's 40.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Sam Houston is -1 in turnover margin (0 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Troy sits at +1.
5Clear 27 points
The market total for this game is 52.5. Anything above 27 points puts Sam Houston on the winning side of an even split.
Troy — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Sam Houston ranks #109 nationally allowing 177.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #62 pass defense.
2Contain Alton McCaskill
Sam Houston's top producer this season: 51 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Troy has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Troy converts 40.0% of third downs (#85 nationally) versus Sam Houston's 42.9%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Troy is +1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Sam Houston sits at -1.
5Clear 27 points
The market total for this game is 52.5. Anything above 27 points puts Troy on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Landyn LockeSHSU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 335
- Completion %
- 65.2%
- Yards / Attempt
- 7.3
- TD : INT
- 3 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 3.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 143.6
Will CrowderTROY · QB
- Passing Yds
- 165
- Completion %
- 50.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 6.9
- TD : INT
- 3 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 149.0
Leading Rusher
Alton McCaskillSHSU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 51
- Carries
- 13
- Yards / Carry
- 3.9
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 24
Gavin GriffinTROY · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 81
- Carries
- 16
- Yards / Carry
- 5.1
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 22
Primary Receiver
Grady O'NeillSHSU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 86
- Receptions
- 7
- Yards / Catch
- 12.3
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 37
TK KeyesTROY · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 48
- Receptions
- 2
- Yards / Catch
- 24.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 28
Defensive Leader
Railyn AdamsSHSU · S
- Tackles
- 7
- Solo
- 2
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.5
- INT
- 0
Doug NelsonTROY · LB
- Tackles
- 8
- Solo
- 2
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
TROY by 13.0
Baseline TROY -13.0
Simulated Total
52.5
Baseline 52.5
Unit Edge
TROY QB
TROY Below average · SHSU Below average
SHSU passing vs TROY coverage
| 335.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 335.0 |
| 65.2% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 7.3 |
| 7.3 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 65.2% |
| 3.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 8.7% |
| 0.310 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.310 |
SHSU rushing vs TROY run defense
| 38.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 38.0 |
| 1.6 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 1.6 |
| 1.8 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 40.0% |
| 40.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 13 |
| -0.186 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.186 |
TROY passing vs SHSU coverage
| 165.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 165.0 |
| 6.9 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 50.0% |
| 50.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 6.9 |
| 16.7% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 3.00:1 |
| 0.290 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.290 |
Efficiency & situational
| 42.9% | Third-down conversion | 40.0% |
| 373.0 | Total yards / game | 342.0 |
| 342.0 | Yards allowed / game | 373.0 |
| -1 | Turnover margin | +1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.