Vegas Line
NC State -30.5
Total 48.5
Model Projection
NCSU -27.0
NCSU 98.5% win · O/U 48.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: RICH
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- NCSU -11.0
- NCSU: 3 portal additions / 4 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 78%, incoming portal talent −2.4 pts.
Richmond — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
NC State ranks #128 nationally allowing 258.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #54 pass defense.
2Protect the turnover edge
Richmond is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; NC State sits at -2.
3Clear 25 points
The market total for this game is 48.5. Anything above 25 points puts Richmond on the winning side of an even split.
NC State — Keys to Victory
1Fix the turnover margin
NC State is -2 in turnover margin (0 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; Richmond sits at +0.
2Clear 25 points
The market total for this game is 48.5. Anything above 25 points puts NC State on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
NCSU by 27.0
Baseline NCSU -27.0
Simulated Total
48.5
Baseline 48.5
Unit Edge
NCSU QB
NCSU FBS average · RICH Below average
RICH passing vs NCSU coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 155.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 14.1 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 81.8% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 9.1% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.863 |
RICH rushing vs NCSU run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 258.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.5 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 14.0% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 3 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.239 |
NCSU passing vs RICH coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 92.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 55.6% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 3.4 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | -0.001 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 30.8% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 168.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 413.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | -2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.