Week 2 · Final
0 – 52
Vegas Line
Notre Dame -44.5
Total 55.5
Model Projection
ND -41.0
ND 99.8% win · O/U 55.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: RICE
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +6.8 pts toward ND on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- ND -14.0
- ND: 7 portal additions / 4 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 65%, incoming portal talent +4.3 pts.
Rice — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Notre Dame ranks #86 nationally allowing 217.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #38 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Rice converts 64.7% of third downs (#15 nationally) versus Notre Dame's 33.3%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Rice is +1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Notre Dame sits at +2.
4Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 55.5. Anything above 28 points puts Rice on the winning side of an even split.
Notre Dame — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Rice ranks #92 nationally allowing 148.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #18 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Notre Dame converts 33.3% of third downs (#102 nationally) versus Rice's 64.7%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Notre Dame is +2 in turnover margin (2 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Rice sits at +1.
4Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 55.5. Anything above 28 points puts Notre Dame on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
ND by 41.0
Baseline ND -41.0
Simulated Total
55.5
Baseline 55.5
Unit Edge
ND QB
ND Above average · RICE Below average
RICE passing vs ND coverage
| 28.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 217.0 |
| 40.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 7.2 |
| 2.8 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 63.3% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 6.7% |
| 0.136 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.266 |
RICE rushing vs ND run defense
| 465.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 67.0 |
| 6.6 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.2 |
| 4.1 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 21.4% |
| 8.1% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 6 |
| 0.340 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.173 |
ND passing vs RICE coverage
| 96.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 239.0 |
| 4.2 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 65.5% |
| 34.8% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 8.2 |
| 13.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 2.00:1 |
| -0.273 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.442 |
Efficiency & situational
| 64.7% | Third-down conversion | 33.3% |
| 493.0 | Total yards / game | 350.0 |
| 244.0 | Yards allowed / game | 284.0 |
| +1 | Turnover margin | +2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.