Week 1 · Final
14 – 38
Vegas Line
Temple -14.5
Total 51.5
Model Projection
TEM -11.0
TEM 84.5% win · O/U 51.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: URI
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- TEM -3.5
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
Rhode Island — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Temple ranks #72 nationally allowing 195.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #58 run defense.
2Contain Keveun Mason
Temple's top producer this season: 158 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Rhode Island has to take away.
3Protect the turnover edge
Rhode Island is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Temple sits at +2.
4Clear 26 points
The market total for this game is 51.5. Anything above 26 points puts Rhode Island on the winning side of an even split.
Temple — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
Temple is +2 in turnover margin (3 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Rhode Island sits at +0.
2Clear 26 points
The market total for this game is 51.5. Anything above 26 points puts Temple on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Ajani SheppardTEM · QB
- Passing Yds
- 85
- Completion %
- 50.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 8.5
- TD : INT
- 0 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- —
- Passer Rating
- 121.4
Leading Rusher
Keveun MasonTEM · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 158
- Carries
- 20
- Yards / Carry
- 7.9
- Rushing TD
- 2
- Long
- 38
Primary Receiver
Colin ChaseTEM · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 43
- Receptions
- 3
- Yards / Catch
- 14.3
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 21
Defensive Leader
Curly OrdonezTEM · LB
- Tackles
- 8
- Solo
- 6
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
TEM by 11.0
Baseline TEM -11.0
Simulated Total
51.5
Baseline 51.5
Unit Edge
TEM QB
TEM FBS average · URI Below average
URI passing vs TEM coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 195.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 6.3 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 58.1% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 6.5% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.103 |
URI rushing vs TEM run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 97.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 3.2 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 33.3% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 6 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.147 |
TEM passing vs URI coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 142.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 56.3% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 8.9 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 1.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.306 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 25.0% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 369.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 292.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | +2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.