Week 1 · Final
20 – 53
Vegas Line
San Diego State -38.5
Total 62.5
Model Projection
SDSU -35.0
SDSU 99.5% win · O/U 62.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: PRST
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- SDSU -9.4
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
Portland State — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
San Diego State ranks #113 nationally allowing 280.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #57 run defense.
2Contain Javion Kinnard
San Diego State's top producer this season: 79 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Portland State has to take away.
3Protect the turnover edge
Portland State is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; San Diego State sits at +0.
4Clear 32 points
The market total for this game is 62.5. Anything above 32 points puts Portland State on the winning side of an even split.
San Diego State — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
San Diego State is +0 in turnover margin (3 forced, 3 lost) across 1 recorded games; Portland State sits at +0.
2Clear 32 points
The market total for this game is 62.5. Anything above 32 points puts San Diego State on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Jayden DenegalSDSU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 137
- Completion %
- 70.6%
- Yards / Attempt
- 8.1
- TD : INT
- 2 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 2.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 165.3
Leading Rusher
Javion KinnardSDSU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 79
- Carries
- 8
- Yards / Carry
- 9.9
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 55
Primary Receiver
Justius LoweSDSU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 56
- Receptions
- 2
- Yards / Catch
- 28.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 40
Defensive Leader
Sione HalaSDSU · LB
- Tackles
- 10
- Solo
- 6
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
SDSU by 35.0
Baseline SDSU -35.0
Simulated Total
62.5
Baseline 62.5
Unit Edge
SDSU QB
SDSU FBS average · PRST Below average
PRST passing vs SDSU coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 280.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 5.4 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 59.6% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 1.9% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.289 |
PRST rushing vs SDSU run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 95.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 3.2 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 5.6% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 3 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.156 |
SDSU passing vs PRST coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 157.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 66.7% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 7.5 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 2.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.682 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 50.0% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 394.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 375.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | 0 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.