Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
ORE -16.5
ORE 92.7% win · O/U 53.7
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- ORE -12.5
- ORE: 8 portal additions / 15 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 30%, incoming portal talent −4.5 pts.
Portland State — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Oregon ranks #65 nationally allowing 181.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #56 run defense.
2Contain Jordon Davison
Oregon's top producer this season: 90 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Portland State has to take away.
3Protect the turnover edge
Portland State is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Oregon sits at -1.
Oregon — Keys to Victory
1Fix the turnover margin
Oregon is -1 in turnover margin (0 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Portland State sits at +0.
2Move the ball efficiently
Oregon averages 497.0 total yards per game (#44 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Dante MooreORE · QB
- Passing Yds
- 378
- Completion %
- 75.7%
- Yards / Attempt
- 10.2
- TD : INT
- 3 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 188.2
Leading Rusher
Jordon DavisonORE · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 90
- Carries
- 12
- Yards / Carry
- 7.5
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 40
Primary Receiver
Jeremiah McClellanORE · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 150
- Receptions
- 6
- Yards / Catch
- 25.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 51
Defensive Leader
Koi PerichORE · DB
- Tackles
- 11
- Solo
- 3
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
ORE by 16.5
Baseline ORE -16.5
Simulated Total
53.7
Baseline 53.7
Unit Edge
ORE QB
ORE Above average · PRST Below average
PRST passing vs ORE coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 181.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 6.2 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 51.7% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 10.3% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.291 |
PRST rushing vs ORE run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 93.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.6 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 12.1% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 5 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.024 |
ORE passing vs PRST coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 378.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 73.7% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 9.9 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 3.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.349 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 33.3% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 497.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 274.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | -1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.