Week 1 · Final
20 – 33
Vegas Line
Houston -21
Total 50.5
Model Projection
HOU -17.5
HOU 93.7% win · O/U 50.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: ORST
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +4.1 pts toward HOU on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- ORST -0.2
- HOU: 5 portal additions / 1 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 81%, incoming portal talent +2.0 pts.
- ORST: 0 portal additions / 2 departures, first year under JaMarcus Shephard — 2021–2025 archive weighted 64%, incoming portal talent −1.0 pts.
Oregon State — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Houston ranks #133 nationally allowing 376.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #8 run defense.
2Contain Makhi Hughes
Houston's top producer this season: 98 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Oregon State has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Oregon State converts 26.7% of third downs (#118 nationally) versus Houston's 53.8%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Oregon State is +2 in turnover margin (2 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Houston sits at -2.
5Clear 26 points
The market total for this game is 50.5. Anything above 26 points puts Oregon State on the winning side of an even split.
Houston — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Oregon State ranks #121 nationally allowing 228.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #117 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Houston converts 53.8% of third downs (#38 nationally) versus Oregon State's 26.7%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Fix the turnover margin
Houston is -2 in turnover margin (0 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; Oregon State sits at +2.
4Clear 26 points
The market total for this game is 50.5. Anything above 26 points puts Houston on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Conner WeigmanHOU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 305
- Completion %
- 66.7%
- Yards / Attempt
- 10.2
- TD : INT
- 1 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 1.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 156.4
Leading Rusher
Makhi HughesHOU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 98
- Carries
- 17
- Yards / Carry
- 5.8
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 18
Primary Receiver
Amare ThomasHOU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 133
- Receptions
- 8
- Yards / Catch
- 16.6
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 37
Defensive Leader
Jaden YatesHOU · LB
- Tackles
- 8
- Solo
- 5
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
HOU by 17.5
Baseline HOU -17.5
Simulated Total
50.5
Baseline 50.5
Unit Edge
HOU QB
HOU FBS average · ORST FBS average
ORST passing vs HOU coverage
| 376.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 376.0 |
| 60.4% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 7.8 |
| 7.8 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 60.4% |
| 1.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 8.3% |
| 0.289 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.289 |
ORST rushing vs HOU run defense
| 26.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 26.0 |
| 1.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 1.0 |
| 2.8 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 4.8% |
| 4.8% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 4 |
| -0.071 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.071 |
HOU passing vs ORST coverage
| 305.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 305.0 |
| 9.8 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 64.5% |
| 64.5% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 9.8 |
| 3.2% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 1.00:1 |
| 0.439 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.439 |
Efficiency & situational
| 26.7% | Third-down conversion | 53.8% |
| 402.0 | Total yards / game | 533.0 |
| 533.0 | Yards allowed / game | 402.0 |
| +2 | Turnover margin | -2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.