Week 1 · Final
10 – 24
Vegas Line
Oklahoma State -13.5
Total 57.5
Model Projection
OKST -10.0
OKST 82.3% win · O/U 57.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: TLSA
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +0.9 pts toward TLSA on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- OKST -5.1
- OKST: 8 portal additions / 5 departures, first year under Eric Morris — 2021–2025 archive weighted 29%, incoming portal talent +3.2 pts.
Oklahoma State — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Tulsa ranks #99 nationally allowing 241.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #77 run defense.
2Contain Damari Alston
Tulsa's top producer this season: 73 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Oklahoma State has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Oklahoma State converts 31.3% of third downs (#109 nationally) versus Tulsa's 9.1%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Oklahoma State is -3 in turnover margin (1 forced, 4 lost) across 1 recorded games; Tulsa sits at +3.
5Clear 29 points
The market total for this game is 57.5. Anything above 29 points puts Oklahoma State on the winning side of an even split.
Tulsa — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Oklahoma State ranks #92 nationally allowing 227.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #81 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Tulsa converts 9.1% of third downs (#134 nationally) versus Oklahoma State's 31.3%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Tulsa is +3 in turnover margin (4 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Oklahoma State sits at -3.
4Clear 29 points
The market total for this game is 57.5. Anything above 29 points puts Tulsa on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Baylor HayesTLSA · QB
- Passing Yds
- 227
- Completion %
- 70.8%
- Yards / Attempt
- 9.5
- TD : INT
- 1 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 1.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 155.7
Leading Rusher
Damari AlstonTLSA · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 73
- Carries
- 15
- Yards / Carry
- 4.9
- Rushing TD
- 2
- Long
- 29
Primary Receiver
Oran Singleton Jr.TLSA · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 99
- Receptions
- 4
- Yards / Catch
- 24.8
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 56
Defensive Leader
Chris Thompson Jr.TLSA · LB
- Tackles
- 10
- Solo
- 5
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
OKST by 10.0
Baseline OKST -10.0
Simulated Total
57.5
Baseline 57.5
Unit Edge
TLSA QB
TLSA FBS average · OKST FBS average
OKST passing vs TLSA coverage
| 241.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 241.0 |
| 59.2% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 4.9 |
| 4.9 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 59.2% |
| 0.50:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 4.1% |
| 0.151 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.151 |
OKST rushing vs TLSA run defense
| 127.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 127.0 |
| 3.4 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 3.4 |
| 2.8 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 22.2% |
| 22.2% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 3 |
| -0.116 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.116 |
TLSA passing vs OKST coverage
| 227.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 227.0 |
| 9.5 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 70.8% |
| 70.8% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 9.5 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 1.00:1 |
| 0.443 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.443 |
Efficiency & situational
| 31.3% | Third-down conversion | 9.1% |
| 368.0 | Total yards / game | 361.0 |
| 361.0 | Yards allowed / game | 368.0 |
| -3 | Turnover margin | +3 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.