Week 3 · Scheduled
VS
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
USA -7.5
USA 76.6% win · O/U 58.2
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +1.5 pts toward USA on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- USA -2.2
- OHIO: 0 portal additions / 1 departures, first year under John Hauser — 2021–2025 archive weighted 67%, incoming portal talent −1.0 pts.
Ohio — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
South Alabama ranks #69 nationally allowing 186.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #19 run defense.
2Contain PJ Martin
South Alabama's top producer this season: 69 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Ohio has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Ohio converts 40.0% of third downs (#84 nationally) versus South Alabama's 41.2%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Ohio is -1 in turnover margin (0 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; South Alabama sits at +2.
5Move the ball efficiently
Ohio averages 303.0 total yards per game (#113 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
South Alabama — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Ohio ranks #124 nationally allowing 248.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #111 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
South Alabama converts 41.2% of third downs (#79 nationally) versus Ohio's 40.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
South Alabama is +2 in turnover margin (2 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Ohio sits at -1.
4Move the ball efficiently
South Alabama averages 395.0 total yards per game (#77 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Bishop DavenportUSA · QB
- Passing Yds
- 154
- Completion %
- 66.7%
- Yards / Attempt
- 5.7
- TD : INT
- 1 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 126.8
Leading Rusher
PJ MartinUSA · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 69
- Carries
- 18
- Yards / Carry
- 3.8
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 12
Primary Receiver
Brendan JenkinsUSA · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 78
- Receptions
- 5
- Yards / Catch
- 15.6
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 26
Defensive Leader
Cole BlaylockUSA · S
- Tackles
- 5
- Solo
- 1
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.5
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
USA by 7.7
Baseline USA -7.5
Simulated Total
58.2
Baseline 58.2
Unit Edge
USA QB
USA Below average · OHIO Below average
OHIO passing vs USA coverage
| 164.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 186.0 |
| 43.8% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 9.3 |
| 5.1 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 60.0% |
| 1.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 5.0% |
| -0.027 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.512 |
OHIO rushing vs USA run defense
| 139.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 45.0 |
| 4.2 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.6 |
| 3.4 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 33.3% |
| 10.7% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 4 |
| 0.212 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.336 |
USA passing vs OHIO coverage
| 275.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 154.0 |
| 8.6 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 66.7% |
| 56.3% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 5.7 |
| 6.3% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 1.00:1 |
| 0.450 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.196 |
Efficiency & situational
| 40.0% | Third-down conversion | 41.2% |
| 303.0 | Total yards / game | 395.0 |
| 523.0 | Yards allowed / game | 231.0 |
| -1 | Turnover margin | +2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.