Week 1 · Final
21 – 49
Vegas Line
Nebraska -23.5
Total 47.5
Model Projection
NEB -20.0
NEB 95.6% win · O/U 47.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: OHIO
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +10.7 pts toward NEB on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- NEB -0.1
- OHIO: 0 portal additions / 1 departures, first year under John Hauser — 2021–2025 archive weighted 67%, incoming portal talent −1.0 pts.
Ohio — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Nebraska ranks #86 nationally allowing 139.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #61 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Ohio converts 40.0% of third downs (#84 nationally) versus Nebraska's 64.3%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Fix the turnover margin
Ohio is -1 in turnover margin (0 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Nebraska sits at +1.
4Clear 24 points
The market total for this game is 47.5. Anything above 24 points puts Ohio on the winning side of an even split.
Nebraska — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Ohio ranks #124 nationally allowing 248.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #111 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Nebraska converts 64.3% of third downs (#16 nationally) versus Ohio's 40.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Nebraska is +1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Ohio sits at -1.
4Clear 24 points
The market total for this game is 47.5. Anything above 24 points puts Nebraska on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
NEB by 20.0
Baseline NEB -20.0
Simulated Total
47.5
Baseline 47.5
Unit Edge
NEB QB
NEB Above average · OHIO Below average
OHIO passing vs NEB coverage
| 164.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 164.0 |
| 43.8% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 5.1 |
| 5.1 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 43.8% |
| 1.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 6.3% |
| -0.027 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.027 |
OHIO rushing vs NEB run defense
| 139.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 139.0 |
| 4.2 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.2 |
| 3.4 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 10.7% |
| 10.7% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 4 |
| 0.212 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.212 |
NEB passing vs OHIO coverage
| 275.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 275.0 |
| 8.6 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 56.3% |
| 56.3% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 8.6 |
| 6.3% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 3.00:1 |
| 0.450 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.450 |
Efficiency & situational
| 40.0% | Third-down conversion | 64.3% |
| 303.0 | Total yards / game | 523.0 |
| 523.0 | Yards allowed / game | 303.0 |
| -1 | Turnover margin | +1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.