Week 11 · Final
17 – 34
Vegas Line
OHIO -1.5
Total 47.5
Model Projection
M-OH -2.0
M-OH 57.6% win · O/U 47.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: M-OH
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +1.1 pts toward M-OH on the 2026 9-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Current reality
- 2026 sample
- 9 games · 90%
- Historical baseline
- 10%
- Baseline margin
- Even
- OHIO: 0 portal additions / 1 departures, first year under John Hauser — 2021–2025 archive weighted 67%, incoming portal talent −1.0 pts.
Ohio — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Miami (OH) ranks #138 nationally allowing 480.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #106 run defense.
2Contain Lazaro Rogers
Miami (OH)'s top producer this season: 21 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Ohio has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Ohio converts 40.0% of third downs (#84 nationally) versus Miami (OH)'s 23.1%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Ohio is -1 in turnover margin (0 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Miami (OH) sits at -1.
5Clear 24 points
The market total for this game is 47.5. Anything above 24 points puts Ohio on the winning side of an even split.
Miami (OH) — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Ohio ranks #124 nationally allowing 248.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #111 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Miami (OH) converts 23.1% of third downs (#121 nationally) versus Ohio's 40.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Fix the turnover margin
Miami (OH) is -1 in turnover margin (0 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Ohio sits at -1.
4Clear 24 points
The market total for this game is 47.5. Anything above 24 points puts Miami (OH) on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
David McCombM-OH · QB
- Passing Yds
- 240
- Completion %
- 48.5%
- Yards / Attempt
- 7.3
- TD : INT
- 1 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 119.6
Leading Rusher
Lazaro RogersM-OH · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 21
- Carries
- 6
- Yards / Carry
- 3.5
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 8
Primary Receiver
Damarion WittenM-OH · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 90
- Receptions
- 2
- Yards / Catch
- 45.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 75
Defensive Leader
CJ YoungM-OH · LB
- Tackles
- 8
- Solo
- 3
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
M-OH by 2.0
Baseline M-OH -2.0
Simulated Total
47.5
Baseline 47.5
Unit Edge
M-OH QB
M-OH FBS average · OHIO Below average
OHIO passing vs M-OH coverage
| 164.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 480.0 |
| 43.8% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 10.9 |
| 5.1 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 77.3% |
| 1.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 2.3% |
| -0.027 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.637 |
OHIO rushing vs M-OH run defense
| 139.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 166.0 |
| 4.2 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 5.4 |
| 3.4 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 15.8% |
| 10.7% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 2 |
| 0.212 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.310 |
M-OH passing vs OHIO coverage
| 275.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 261.0 |
| 8.6 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 51.4% |
| 56.3% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 7.1 |
| 6.3% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 1.00:1 |
| 0.450 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.260 |
Efficiency & situational
| 40.0% | Third-down conversion | 23.1% |
| 303.0 | Total yards / game | 289.0 |
| 523.0 | Yards allowed / game | 646.0 |
| -1 | Turnover margin | -1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.