Vegas Line
Texas -1.5
Total 49.5
Model Projection
TEX -2.5
TEX 58.8% win · O/U 49.5
Value Edge
0.8 pt edge: TEX
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +2.1 pts toward TEX on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- OSU -3.8
- TEX: 9 portal additions / 13 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 30%, incoming portal talent −0.6 pts.
- OSU: 10 portal additions / 10 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 36%, incoming portal talent +0.9 pts.
Ohio State — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Texas ranks #101 nationally allowing 161.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #71 pass defense.
2Contain Daylan Smothers
Texas's top producer this season: 70 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Ohio State has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Ohio State converts 45.5% of third downs (#62 nationally) versus Texas's 73.3%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Ohio State is +0 in turnover margin (1 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Texas sits at +2.
5Clear 25 points
The market total for this game is 49.5. Anything above 25 points puts Ohio State on the winning side of an even split.
Texas — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Ohio State ranks #37 nationally allowing 120.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #18 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Texas converts 73.3% of third downs (#4 nationally) versus Ohio State's 45.5%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Texas is +2 in turnover margin (3 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Ohio State sits at +0.
4Clear 25 points
The market total for this game is 49.5. Anything above 25 points puts Texas on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Arch ManningTEX · QB
- Passing Yds
- 305
- Completion %
- 74.1%
- Yards / Attempt
- 11.3
- TD : INT
- 4 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 4.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 210.4
Leading Rusher
Daylan SmothersTEX · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 70
- Carries
- 10
- Yards / Carry
- 7.0
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 45
Primary Receiver
Ryan WingoTEX · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 121
- Receptions
- 7
- Yards / Catch
- 17.3
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 45
Defensive Leader
Jelani McDonaldTEX · DB
- Tackles
- 8
- Solo
- 7
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 1.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
TEX by 2.3
Baseline TEX -2.5
Simulated Total
49.5
Baseline 49.5
Unit Edge
OSU QB
TEX Top 25 level · OSU Top 25 level
OSU passing vs TEX coverage
| 434.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 188.0 |
| 83.8% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 6.5 |
| 11.7 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 69.0% |
| 5.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 6.9% |
| 0.861 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.429 |
OSU rushing vs TEX run defense
| 237.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 161.0 |
| 6.8 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 3.9 |
| 2.7 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 26.3% |
| 23.5% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 8 |
| 0.308 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.120 |
TEX passing vs OSU coverage
| 120.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 360.0 |
| 3.2 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 76.5% |
| 54.1% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 10.6 |
| 2.7% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 4.00:1 |
| -0.265 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.991 |
Efficiency & situational
| 45.5% | Third-down conversion | 73.3% |
| 671.0 | Total yards / game | 516.0 |
| 165.0 | Yards allowed / game | 349.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | +2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.