Week 2 · Final
13 – 21
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
WYO -11.5
WYO 85.4% win · O/U 51.7
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- WYO -7.5
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
Northern Colorado — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Wyoming ranks #100 nationally allowing 242.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #98 run defense.
2Contain Samuel Harris
Wyoming's top producer this season: 63 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Northern Colorado has to take away.
3Protect the turnover edge
Northern Colorado is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Wyoming sits at -4.
Wyoming — Keys to Victory
1Fix the turnover margin
Wyoming is -4 in turnover margin (0 forced, 4 lost) across 1 recorded games; Northern Colorado sits at +0.
2Move the ball efficiently
Wyoming averages 273.0 total yards per game (#123 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Tyler HughesWYO · QB
- Passing Yds
- 130
- Completion %
- 63.2%
- Yards / Attempt
- 6.8
- TD : INT
- 0 : 3
- TD/INT Ratio
- 0.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 89.1
Leading Rusher
Samuel HarrisWYO · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 63
- Carries
- 16
- Yards / Carry
- 3.9
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 15
Primary Receiver
Jake WilsonWYO · TE
- Receiving Yds
- 51
- Receptions
- 2
- Yards / Catch
- 25.5
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 29
Defensive Leader
Ethan StuhlsatzWYO · LB
- Tackles
- 15
- Solo
- 3
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.5
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
WYO by 11.5
Baseline WYO -11.5
Simulated Total
51.7
Baseline 51.7
Unit Edge
WYO QB
WYO Below average · UNCO Below average
UNCO passing vs WYO coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 242.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 7.1 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 70.6% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 0.0% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.537 |
UNCO rushing vs WYO run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 154.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.7 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 21.2% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 5 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.064 |
WYO passing vs UNCO coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 130.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 63.2% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 6.8 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.109 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 0.0% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 273.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 396.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | -4 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.