Vegas Line
Arizona -32.5
Total 59.5
Model Projection
ARIZ -29.0
ARIZ 98.9% win · O/U 59.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: NAU
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- ARIZ -9.7
- ARIZ: 4 portal additions / 0 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 87%, incoming portal talent +2.3 pts.
Northern Arizona — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Arizona ranks #78 nationally allowing 200.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #1 run defense.
2Protect the turnover edge
Northern Arizona is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Arizona sits at -2.
3Clear 30 points
The market total for this game is 59.5. Anything above 30 points puts Northern Arizona on the winning side of an even split.
Arizona — Keys to Victory
1Fix the turnover margin
Arizona is -2 in turnover margin (1 forced, 3 lost) across 1 recorded games; Northern Arizona sits at +0.
2Clear 30 points
The market total for this game is 59.5. Anything above 30 points puts Arizona on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
ARIZ by 29.0
Baseline ARIZ -29.0
Simulated Total
59.5
Baseline 59.5
Unit Edge
ARIZ QB
ARIZ FBS average · NAU Below average
NAU passing vs ARIZ coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 200.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 6.5 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 61.3% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 16.1% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.021 |
NAU rushing vs ARIZ run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | -7.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | -0.3 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 42.9% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 11 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.430 |
ARIZ passing vs NAU coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 314.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 73.0% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 8.5 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 2.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.202 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 58.3% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 520.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 193.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | -2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.