Week 3 · Scheduled
VS
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
TXST -5.5
TXST 70.0% win · O/U 64.4
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +2.9 pts toward UNT on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- TXST -4.4
- UNT: 0 portal additions / 5 departures, first year under Neal Brown — 2021–2025 archive weighted 54%, incoming portal talent −4.4 pts.
North Texas — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Texas State ranks #130 nationally allowing 360.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #99 run defense.
2Contain Jaylen Jenkins
Texas State's top producer this season: 34 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing North Texas has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
North Texas converts 40.0% of third downs (#83 nationally) versus Texas State's 57.1%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
North Texas is -1 in turnover margin (0 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Texas State sits at -2.
5Move the ball efficiently
North Texas averages 367.0 total yards per game (#90 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Texas State — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
North Texas ranks #94 nationally allowing 231.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #80 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Texas State converts 57.1% of third downs (#29 nationally) versus North Texas's 40.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Fix the turnover margin
Texas State is -2 in turnover margin (1 forced, 3 lost) across 1 recorded games; North Texas sits at -1.
4Move the ball efficiently
Texas State averages 349.0 total yards per game (#99 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Brad JacksonTXST · QB
- Passing Yds
- 150
- Completion %
- 65.2%
- Yards / Attempt
- 6.5
- TD : INT
- 0 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 0.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 111.3
Leading Rusher
Jaylen JenkinsTXST · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 34
- Carries
- 6
- Yards / Carry
- 5.7
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 22
Primary Receiver
Tucker CusanoTXST · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 58
- Receptions
- 3
- Yards / Catch
- 19.3
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 41
Defensive Leader
Terrence Cooks IITXST · LB
- Tackles
- 8
- Solo
- 3
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 1.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
TXST by 5.5
Baseline TXST -5.5
Simulated Total
64.4
Baseline 64.4
Unit Edge
TXST QB
TXST FBS average · UNT FBS average
UNT passing vs TXST coverage
| 215.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 360.0 |
| 79.3% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 10.6 |
| 7.4 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 76.5% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 2.9% |
| 0.382 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.991 |
UNT rushing vs TXST run defense
| 152.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 156.0 |
| 4.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.3 |
| 3.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 37.5% |
| 6.7% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 8 |
| 0.043 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.023 |
TXST passing vs UNT coverage
| 231.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 188.0 |
| 14.4 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 69.0% |
| 81.3% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 6.5 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| 1.639 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.429 |
Efficiency & situational
| 40.0% | Third-down conversion | 57.1% |
| 367.0 | Total yards / game | 349.0 |
| 365.0 | Yards allowed / game | 516.0 |
| -1 | Turnover margin | -2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.