Week 3 · Scheduled
VS
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
NDSU -2.0
NDSU 56.9% win · O/U 40.9
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +5.1 pts toward NDSU on the 2026 3-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 3 games · 75%
- Historical baseline
- 25%
- Baseline margin
- SAC -0.8
- SAC: 0 portal additions / 1 departures, first year under Alonzo Carter — 2021–2025 archive weighted 67%, incoming portal talent −0.4 pts.
North Dakota State — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Sacramento State ranks #59 nationally allowing 161.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #49 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
North Dakota State converts 42.9% of third downs (#72 nationally) versus Sacramento State's 35.7%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
North Dakota State is +5 in turnover margin (6 forced, 1 lost) across 2 recorded games; Sacramento State sits at -2.
4Move the ball efficiently
North Dakota State averages 373.0 total yards per game (#85 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Sacramento State — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
North Dakota State ranks #26 nationally allowing 52.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #23 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Sacramento State converts 35.7% of third downs (#98 nationally) versus North Dakota State's 42.9%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Fix the turnover margin
Sacramento State is -2 in turnover margin (2 forced, 4 lost) across 2 recorded games; North Dakota State sits at +5.
4Move the ball efficiently
Sacramento State averages 360.5 total yards per game (#96 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
NDSU by 1.8
Baseline NDSU -2.0
Simulated Total
40.9
Baseline 40.9
Unit Edge
NDSU QB
SAC Below average · NDSU Below average
NDSU passing vs SAC coverage
| 204.5 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 161.0 |
| 73.5% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 5.6 |
| 8.3 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 63.2% |
| 4.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 10.5% |
| 0.330 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.124 |
NDSU rushing vs SAC run defense
| 168.5 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 86.5 |
| 3.9 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.7 |
| 3.3 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 17.5% |
| 10.9% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 14 |
| 0.256 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.158 |
SAC passing vs NDSU coverage
| 100.5 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 234.5 |
| 4.5 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 58.7% |
| 53.3% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 6.3 |
| 13.3% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 2.00:1 |
| -0.437 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.103 |
Efficiency & situational
| 42.9% | Third-down conversion | 35.7% |
| 373.0 | Total yards / game | 360.5 |
| 152.5 | Yards allowed / game | 247.5 |
| +5 | Turnover margin | -2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.