Week 2 · Final
38 – 32
Vegas Line
North Dakota State -2.5
Total 47.5
Model Projection
NDSU -4.5
NDSU 66.3% win · O/U 47.5
Value Edge
1.9 pt edge: NDSU
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +9.7 pts toward NDSU on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- AF -2.8
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
North Dakota State — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Air Force ranks #28 nationally allowing 54.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #6 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
North Dakota State converts 42.9% of third downs (#72 nationally) versus Air Force's 60.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
North Dakota State is +5 in turnover margin (6 forced, 1 lost) across 2 recorded games; Air Force sits at +2.
4Clear 24 points
The market total for this game is 47.5. Anything above 24 points puts North Dakota State on the winning side of an even split.
Air Force — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
North Dakota State ranks #26 nationally allowing 52.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #23 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Air Force converts 60.0% of third downs (#20 nationally) versus North Dakota State's 42.9%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Air Force is +2 in turnover margin (2 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; North Dakota State sits at +5.
4Clear 24 points
The market total for this game is 47.5. Anything above 24 points puts Air Force on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
NDSU by 4.4
Baseline NDSU -4.5
Simulated Total
47.5
Baseline 47.5
Unit Edge
NDSU QB
AF Below average · NDSU Below average
NDSU passing vs AF coverage
| 204.5 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 53.0 |
| 73.5% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 2.4 |
| 8.3 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 40.9% |
| 4.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 4.5% |
| 0.330 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.131 |
NDSU rushing vs AF run defense
| 168.5 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 54.0 |
| 3.9 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.6 |
| 3.3 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 16.7% |
| 10.9% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 2 |
| 0.256 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.107 |
AF passing vs NDSU coverage
| 100.5 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 19.0 |
| 4.5 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 42.9% |
| 53.3% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 2.7 |
| 13.3% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| -0.437 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | -0.404 |
Efficiency & situational
| 42.9% | Third-down conversion | 60.0% |
| 373.0 | Total yards / game | 450.0 |
| 152.5 | Yards allowed / game | 107.0 |
| +5 | Turnover margin | +2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.