Vegas Line
TCU -7.5
Total 46.5
Model Projection
TCU -4.0
TCU 64.9% win · O/U 46.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: UNC
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +2.1 pts toward UNC on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- TCU -1.9
- UNC: 3 portal additions / 6 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 71%, incoming portal talent −2.2 pts.
North Carolina — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
TCU ranks #96 nationally allowing 232.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #52 run defense.
2Contain Jeremy Payne
TCU's top producer this season: 142 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing North Carolina has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
North Carolina converts 27.3% of third downs (#115 nationally) versus TCU's 43.8%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
North Carolina is -1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; TCU sits at +1.
5Clear 24 points
The market total for this game is 46.5. Anything above 24 points puts North Carolina on the winning side of an even split.
TCU — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
North Carolina ranks #65 nationally allowing 106.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #64 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
TCU converts 43.8% of third downs (#68 nationally) versus North Carolina's 27.3%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
TCU is +1 in turnover margin (2 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; North Carolina sits at -1.
4Clear 24 points
The market total for this game is 46.5. Anything above 24 points puts TCU on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Jaden CraigTCU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 175
- Completion %
- 62.5%
- Yards / Attempt
- 5.5
- TD : INT
- 0 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- —
- Passer Rating
- 108.4
Leading Rusher
Jeremy PayneTCU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 142
- Carries
- 25
- Yards / Carry
- 5.7
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 48
Primary Receiver
Ed SmallTCU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 65
- Receptions
- 9
- Yards / Catch
- 7.2
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 17
Defensive Leader
Max CarrollTCU · LB
- Tackles
- 9
- Solo
- 3
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.5
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
TCU by 4.0
Baseline TCU -4.0
Simulated Total
46.5
Baseline 46.5
Unit Edge
UNC QB
TCU FBS average · UNC FBS average
UNC passing vs TCU coverage
| 232.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 232.0 |
| 57.1% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 8.3 |
| 8.3 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 57.1% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 10.7% |
| 0.269 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.269 |
UNC rushing vs TCU run defense
| 90.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 90.0 |
| 3.1 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 3.1 |
| 3.4 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 14.8% |
| 14.8% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 4 |
| -0.089 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.089 |
TCU passing vs UNC coverage
| 175.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 175.0 |
| 5.5 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 62.5% |
| 62.5% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 5.5 |
| 9.4% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| 0.019 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.019 |
Efficiency & situational
| 27.3% | Third-down conversion | 43.8% |
| 322.0 | Total yards / game | 281.0 |
| 281.0 | Yards allowed / game | 322.0 |
| -1 | Turnover margin | +1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.