Week 1 · Final
10 – 59
Vegas Line
Georgia State -28.5
Total 58.5
Model Projection
GAST -25.0
GAST 97.9% win · O/U 58.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: NCAT
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- GAST -5.8
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
North Carolina A&T — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Georgia State ranks #47 nationally allowing 84.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #39 pass defense.
2Contain Lanear McCrary Jr.
Georgia State's top producer this season: 75 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing North Carolina A&T has to take away.
3Protect the turnover edge
North Carolina A&T is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Georgia State sits at +0.
4Clear 30 points
The market total for this game is 58.5. Anything above 30 points puts North Carolina A&T on the winning side of an even split.
Georgia State — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
Georgia State is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; North Carolina A&T sits at +0.
2Clear 30 points
The market total for this game is 58.5. Anything above 30 points puts Georgia State on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Cameran BrownGAST · QB
- Passing Yds
- 190
- Completion %
- 75.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 9.5
- TD : INT
- 2 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 187.8
Leading Rusher
Lanear McCrary Jr.GAST · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 75
- Carries
- 9
- Yards / Carry
- 8.3
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 19
Primary Receiver
DJ Murray Jr.GAST · RB
- Receiving Yds
- 50
- Receptions
- 2
- Yards / Catch
- 25.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 30
Defensive Leader
Coby OwensGAST · LB
- Tackles
- 5
- Solo
- 2
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 1.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
GAST by 25.0
Baseline GAST -25.0
Simulated Total
58.5
Baseline 58.5
Unit Edge
GAST QB
GAST FBS average · NCAT Below average
NCAT passing vs GAST coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 125.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 5.4 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 47.8% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 21.7% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.161 |
NCAT rushing vs GAST run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 84.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.8 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 30.0% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 9 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.171 |
GAST passing vs NCAT coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 279.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 75.8% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 8.5 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 2.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.697 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 58.3% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 563.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 209.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | 0 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.