Vegas Line
Arkansas -40.5
Total 63.5
Model Projection
ARK -37.0
ARK 99.7% win · O/U 63.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: UNA
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- ARK -13.0
- ARK: 8 portal additions / 3 departures, first year under Ryan Silverfield — 2021–2025 archive weighted 35%, incoming portal talent +2.3 pts.
North Alabama — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Arkansas ranks #30 nationally allowing 113.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #15 run defense.
2Protect the turnover edge
North Alabama is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Arkansas sits at -2.
3Clear 32 points
The market total for this game is 63.5. Anything above 32 points puts North Alabama on the winning side of an even split.
Arkansas — Keys to Victory
1Fix the turnover margin
Arkansas is -2 in turnover margin (1 forced, 3 lost) across 1 recorded games; North Alabama sits at +0.
2Clear 32 points
The market total for this game is 63.5. Anything above 32 points puts Arkansas on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
ARK by 37.0
Baseline ARK -37.0
Simulated Total
63.5
Baseline 63.5
Unit Edge
ARK QB
ARK Above average · UNA Below average
UNA passing vs ARK coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 113.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 4.7 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 50.0% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 8.3% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.071 |
UNA rushing vs ARK run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 40.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.0 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 26.3% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 5 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.050 |
ARK passing vs UNA coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 267.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 68.6% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 7.6 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 3.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.573 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 58.8% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 415.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 153.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | -2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.