Week 1 · Final
10 – 31
Vegas Line
Old Dominion -41.5
Total 52.5
Model Projection
ODU -38.0
ODU 99.7% win · O/U 52.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: NORF
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- ODU -11.1
- ODU: 0 portal additions / 4 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 87%, incoming portal talent −2.3 pts.
Norfolk State — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Old Dominion ranks #76 nationally allowing 126.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #17 pass defense.
2Protect the turnover edge
Norfolk State is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Old Dominion sits at +1.
3Clear 27 points
The market total for this game is 52.5. Anything above 27 points puts Norfolk State on the winning side of an even split.
Old Dominion — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
Old Dominion is +1 in turnover margin (3 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; Norfolk State sits at +0.
2Clear 27 points
The market total for this game is 52.5. Anything above 27 points puts Old Dominion on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
ODU by 38.0
Baseline ODU -38.0
Simulated Total
52.5
Baseline 52.5
Unit Edge
ODU QB
ODU FBS average · NORF Below average
NORF passing vs ODU coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 94.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 4.7 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 70.0% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 15.0% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.229 |
NORF rushing vs ODU run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 126.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 3.1 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 23.7% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 11 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.195 |
ODU passing vs NORF coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 137.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 69.2% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 10.5 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 2.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.553 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 55.6% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 319.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 220.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | +1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.