Week 3 · Scheduled
VS
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
SHSU -8.5
SHSU 78.5% win · O/U 53.4
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- SHSU -4.4
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
Nicholls — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Sam Houston ranks #109 nationally allowing 177.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #62 pass defense.
2Contain Alton McCaskill
Sam Houston's top producer this season: 51 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Nicholls has to take away.
3Protect the turnover edge
Nicholls is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Sam Houston sits at -1.
Sam Houston — Keys to Victory
1Fix the turnover margin
Sam Houston is -1 in turnover margin (0 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Nicholls sits at +0.
2Move the ball efficiently
Sam Houston averages 373.0 total yards per game (#86 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Landyn LockeSHSU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 335
- Completion %
- 65.2%
- Yards / Attempt
- 7.3
- TD : INT
- 3 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 3.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 143.6
Leading Rusher
Alton McCaskillSHSU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 51
- Carries
- 13
- Yards / Carry
- 3.9
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 24
Primary Receiver
Grady O'NeillSHSU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 86
- Receptions
- 7
- Yards / Catch
- 12.3
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 37
Defensive Leader
Railyn AdamsSHSU · S
- Tackles
- 7
- Solo
- 2
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.5
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
SHSU by 8.4
Baseline SHSU -8.5
Simulated Total
53.4
Baseline 53.4
Unit Edge
SHSU QB
SHSU Below average · NICH Below average
NICH passing vs SHSU coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 165.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 6.9 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 50.0% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 16.7% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.290 |
NICH rushing vs SHSU run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 177.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.2 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 28.2% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 8 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.025 |
SHSU passing vs NICH coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 335.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 65.2% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 7.3 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 3.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.310 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 42.9% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 373.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 342.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | -1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.