Week 3 · Scheduled
VS
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
OU -19.0
OU 95.0% win · O/U 48.3
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +8.6 pts toward OU on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- OU -6.6
- OU: 7 portal additions / 6 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 59%, incoming portal talent +1.4 pts.
New Mexico — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Oklahoma ranks #71 nationally allowing 112.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #13 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
New Mexico converts 53.8% of third downs (#39 nationally) versus Oklahoma's 54.5%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
New Mexico is +2 in turnover margin (2 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Oklahoma sits at +1.
4Move the ball efficiently
New Mexico averages 364.0 total yards per game (#94 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Oklahoma — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
New Mexico ranks #73 nationally allowing 119.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #2 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Oklahoma converts 54.5% of third downs (#35 nationally) versus New Mexico's 53.8%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Oklahoma is +1 in turnover margin (2 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; New Mexico sits at +2.
4Move the ball efficiently
Oklahoma averages 401.0 total yards per game (#70 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
OU by 19.2
Baseline OU -19.0
Simulated Total
48.3
Baseline 48.3
Unit Edge
OU QB
OU Top 25 level · UNM Below average
UNM passing vs OU coverage
| 159.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 86.0 |
| 68.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 4.8 |
| 6.4 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 55.6% |
| 1.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 22.2% |
| 0.162 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.015 |
UNM rushing vs OU run defense
| 205.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 112.0 |
| 4.7 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.9 |
| 3.9 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 30.0% |
| 3.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 10 |
| 0.440 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.078 |
OU passing vs UNM coverage
| 30.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 231.0 |
| 1.9 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 63.2% |
| 43.8% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 12.2 |
| 18.8% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 3.00:1 |
| -0.383 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 1.046 |
Efficiency & situational
| 53.8% | Third-down conversion | 54.5% |
| 364.0 | Total yards / game | 401.0 |
| 149.0 | Yards allowed / game | 198.0 |
| +2 | Turnover margin | +1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.