Week 2 · Final
19 – 29
Vegas Line
Hawai'i -7
Total 49.5
Model Projection
HAW -8.5
HAW 78.2% win · O/U 49.5
Value Edge
1.3 pt edge: HAW
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +3.2 pts toward HAW on the 2026 3-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 3 games · 75%
- Historical baseline
- 25%
- Baseline margin
- HAW -1.1
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
New Mexico State — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Hawai'i ranks #119 nationally allowing 210.5 rush yards per game — softer than their #84 pass defense.
2Contain Devon Rice
Hawai'i's top producer this season: 108 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing New Mexico State has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
New Mexico State converts 56.7% of third downs (#30 nationally) versus Hawai'i's 43.6%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
New Mexico State is +2 in turnover margin (3 forced, 1 lost) across 2 recorded games; Hawai'i sits at -2.
5Clear 25 points
The market total for this game is 49.5. Anything above 25 points puts New Mexico State on the winning side of an even split.
Hawai'i — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
New Mexico State ranks #89 nationally allowing 143.5 rush yards per game — softer than their #68 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Hawai'i converts 43.6% of third downs (#69 nationally) versus New Mexico State's 56.7%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Fix the turnover margin
Hawai'i is -2 in turnover margin (0 forced, 2 lost) across 2 recorded games; New Mexico State sits at +2.
4Clear 25 points
The market total for this game is 49.5. Anything above 25 points puts Hawai'i on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Micah AlejadoHAW · QB
- Passing Yds
- 448
- Completion %
- 52.2%
- Yards / Attempt
- 4.9
- TD : INT
- 2 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 2.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 98.1
Leading Rusher
Devon RiceHAW · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 108
- Carries
- 26
- Yards / Carry
- 4.2
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 16
Primary Receiver
Kainoa CarvalhoHAW · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 98
- Receptions
- 6
- Yards / Catch
- 16.3
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 32
Defensive Leader
Kona MooreHAW · DB
- Tackles
- 24
- Solo
- 16
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 2.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
HAW by 8.3
Baseline HAW -8.5
Simulated Total
49.5
Baseline 49.5
Unit Edge
HAW QB
HAW Below average · NMSU Below average
NMSU passing vs HAW coverage
| 283.5 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 213.0 |
| 60.6% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 8.2 |
| 8.6 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 57.7% |
| 4.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 1.9% |
| 0.376 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.224 |
NMSU rushing vs HAW run defense
| 141.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 210.5 |
| 4.3 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 5.3 |
| 3.4 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 12.5% |
| 14.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 7 |
| 0.170 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.276 |
HAW passing vs NMSU coverage
| 184.5 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 226.0 |
| 6.4 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 50.5% |
| 56.9% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 4.8 |
| 5.2% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 2.00:1 |
| 0.148 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.046 |
Efficiency & situational
| 56.7% | Third-down conversion | 43.6% |
| 424.5 | Total yards / game | 308.0 |
| 328.0 | Yards allowed / game | 423.5 |
| +2 | Turnover margin | -2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.