Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
VAN -4.0
VAN 65.6% win · O/U 47.8
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +2.3 pts toward VAN on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- NCSU -2.1
- VAN: 4 portal additions / 1 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 84%, incoming portal talent +1.6 pts.
- NCSU: 3 portal additions / 4 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 78%, incoming portal talent −2.4 pts.
NC State — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Vanderbilt ranks #33 nationally allowing 62.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #32 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
NC State converts 30.8% of third downs (#111 nationally) versus Vanderbilt's 33.3%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Fix the turnover margin
NC State is -2 in turnover margin (0 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; Vanderbilt sits at +0.
4Move the ball efficiently
NC State averages 168.0 total yards per game (#130 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Vanderbilt — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
NC State ranks #128 nationally allowing 258.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #54 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Vanderbilt converts 33.3% of third downs (#106 nationally) versus NC State's 30.8%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Vanderbilt is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; NC State sits at -2.
4Move the ball efficiently
Vanderbilt averages 396.0 total yards per game (#76 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
VAN by 4.2
Baseline VAN -4.0
Simulated Total
47.8
Baseline 47.8
Unit Edge
VAN QB
VAN FBS average · NCSU FBS average
NCSU passing vs VAN coverage
| 92.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 116.0 |
| 55.6% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 5.5 |
| 3.4 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 57.1% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 23.8% |
| -0.001 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.051 |
NCSU rushing vs VAN run defense
| 76.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 62.0 |
| 3.2 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.5 |
| 3.3 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 21.1% |
| 12.5% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 5 |
| -0.295 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.209 |
VAN passing vs NCSU coverage
| 155.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 209.0 |
| 14.1 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 72.0% |
| 81.8% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 8.4 |
| 9.1% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| 0.863 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.341 |
Efficiency & situational
| 30.8% | Third-down conversion | 33.3% |
| 168.0 | Total yards / game | 396.0 |
| 413.0 | Yards allowed / game | 178.0 |
| -2 | Turnover margin | 0 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.