Week 2 · Final
30 – 38
Vegas Line
Navy -4.5
Total 58.5
Model Projection
NAVY -1.0
NAVY 53.8% win · O/U 58.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: FAU
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +10.6 pts toward FAU on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- NAVY -3.0
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
Navy — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Florida Atlantic ranks #133 nationally allowing 281.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #126 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Navy converts 58.3% of third downs (#26 nationally) versus Florida Atlantic's 50.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Navy is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Florida Atlantic sits at -2.
4Clear 30 points
The market total for this game is 58.5. Anything above 30 points puts Navy on the winning side of an even split.
Florida Atlantic — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Navy ranks #83 nationally allowing 207.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #14 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Florida Atlantic converts 50.0% of third downs (#46 nationally) versus Navy's 58.3%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Fix the turnover margin
Florida Atlantic is -2 in turnover margin (1 forced, 3 lost) across 1 recorded games; Navy sits at +0.
4Clear 30 points
The market total for this game is 58.5. Anything above 30 points puts Florida Atlantic on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
NAVY by 1.0
Baseline NAVY -1.0
Simulated Total
58.5
Baseline 58.5
Unit Edge
FAU QB
FAU Below average · NAVY Below average
NAVY passing vs FAU coverage
| 21.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 343.0 |
| 50.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 13.2 |
| 3.5 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 76.9% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 3.8% |
| -0.375 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.607 |
NAVY rushing vs FAU run defense
| 506.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 281.0 |
| 6.9 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 6.9 |
| 4.3 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 16.7% |
| 6.3% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 4 |
| 0.598 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.669 |
FAU passing vs NAVY coverage
| 207.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 276.0 |
| 10.9 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 64.2% |
| 73.7% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 5.2 |
| 15.8% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.50:1 |
| 0.492 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.045 |
Efficiency & situational
| 58.3% | Third-down conversion | 50.0% |
| 527.0 | Total yards / game | 396.0 |
| 246.0 | Yards allowed / game | 624.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | -2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.