Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
OKST -15.0
OKST 90.7% win · O/U 48.1
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- OKST -10.8
- OKST: 8 portal additions / 5 departures, first year under Eric Morris — 2021–2025 archive weighted 29%, incoming portal talent +3.2 pts.
Murray State — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Oklahoma State ranks #92 nationally allowing 227.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #81 run defense.
2Protect the turnover edge
Murray State is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Oklahoma State sits at -3.
Oklahoma State — Keys to Victory
1Fix the turnover margin
Oklahoma State is -3 in turnover margin (1 forced, 4 lost) across 1 recorded games; Murray State sits at +0.
2Move the ball efficiently
Oklahoma State averages 368.0 total yards per game (#89 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
OKST by 14.8
Baseline OKST -15.0
Simulated Total
48.1
Baseline 48.1
Unit Edge
OKST QB
OKST FBS average · MUR Below average
MUR passing vs OKST coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 227.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 9.5 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 70.8% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 0.0% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.443 |
MUR rushing vs OKST run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 134.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.1 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 15.2% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 4 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.038 |
OKST passing vs MUR coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 241.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 59.2% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 4.9 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.50:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.151 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 31.3% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 368.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 361.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | -3 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.