Week 1 · Final
14 – 38
Vegas Line
Middle Tennessee -22.5
Total 55.5
Model Projection
MTSU -19.0
MTSU 94.9% win · O/U 55.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: MUR
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- MTSU -5.3
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
Murray State — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Middle Tennessee ranks #90 nationally allowing 145.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #50 pass defense.
2Protect the turnover edge
Murray State is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Middle Tennessee sits at +1.
3Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 55.5. Anything above 28 points puts Murray State on the winning side of an even split.
Middle Tennessee — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
Middle Tennessee is +1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Murray State sits at +0.
2Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 55.5. Anything above 28 points puts Middle Tennessee on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
MTSU by 19.0
Baseline MTSU -19.0
Simulated Total
55.5
Baseline 55.5
Unit Edge
MTSU QB
MTSU FBS average · MUR Below average
MUR passing vs MTSU coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 145.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 6.6 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 59.1% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 0.0% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.157 |
MUR rushing vs MTSU run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 145.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 5.4 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 16.0% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 1 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.049 |
MTSU passing vs MUR coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 200.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 76.9% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 7.7 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 2.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.334 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 42.9% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 396.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 290.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | +1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.