Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
ORST -13.0
ORST 87.8% win · O/U 56.9
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- ORST -8.8
- ORST: 0 portal additions / 2 departures, first year under JaMarcus Shephard — 2021–2025 archive weighted 64%, incoming portal talent −1.0 pts.
Montana — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Oregon State ranks #121 nationally allowing 228.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #117 pass defense.
2Protect the turnover edge
Montana is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Oregon State sits at +2.
Oregon State — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
Oregon State is +2 in turnover margin (2 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Montana sits at +0.
2Move the ball efficiently
Oregon State averages 402.0 total yards per game (#68 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
ORST by 12.8
Baseline ORST -13.0
Simulated Total
56.9
Baseline 56.9
Unit Edge
ORST QB
ORST FBS average · MONT Below average
MONT passing vs ORST coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 305.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 9.8 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 64.5% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 3.2% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.439 |
MONT rushing vs ORST run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 228.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 5.6 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 15.0% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 3 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.176 |
ORST passing vs MONT coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 376.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 60.4% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 7.8 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 1.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.289 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 26.7% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 402.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 533.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | +2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.