Week 2 · Final
20 – 7
Vegas Line
Montana State -4.5
Total 49.5
Model Projection
MONT -1.0
MONT 53.8% win · O/U 49.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: NEV
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- NEV -4.4
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
Montana State — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Nevada ranks #104 nationally allowing 164.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #79 pass defense.
2Protect the turnover edge
Montana State is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Nevada sits at +1.
3Clear 25 points
The market total for this game is 49.5. Anything above 25 points puts Montana State on the winning side of an even split.
Nevada — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
Nevada is +1 in turnover margin (2 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Montana State sits at +0.
2Clear 25 points
The market total for this game is 49.5. Anything above 25 points puts Nevada on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
MONT by 1.0
Baseline MONT -1.0
Simulated Total
49.5
Baseline 49.5
Unit Edge
NEV QB
NEV FBS average · MONT Below average
MONT passing vs NEV coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 203.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 5.1 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 60.0% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 7.5% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.140 |
MONT rushing vs NEV run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 164.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 3.9 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 23.3% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 6 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.195 |
NEV passing vs MONT coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 163.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 56.3% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 10.2 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 2.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.446 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 50.0% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 486.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 367.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | +1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.