Week 2 · Final
14 – 49
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
WMU -12.0
WMU 86.5% win · O/U 50.1
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- WMU -8.1
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
Monmouth — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Western Michigan ranks #67 nationally allowing 106.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #63 pass defense.
2Contain Jalen Buckley
Western Michigan's top producer this season: 62 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Monmouth has to take away.
3Protect the turnover edge
Monmouth is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Western Michigan sits at +3.
Western Michigan — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
Western Michigan is +3 in turnover margin (3 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Monmouth sits at +0.
2Move the ball efficiently
Western Michigan averages 221.0 total yards per game (#126 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Broc LowryWMU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 89
- Completion %
- 71.4%
- Yards / Attempt
- 4.2
- TD : INT
- 0 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- —
- Passer Rating
- 107.0
Leading Rusher
Jalen BuckleyWMU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 62
- Carries
- 19
- Yards / Carry
- 3.3
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 11
Primary Receiver
Aveion ChenaultWMU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 53
- Receptions
- 6
- Yards / Catch
- 8.8
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 16
Defensive Leader
Dillon MooreWMU · LB
- Tackles
- 6
- Solo
- 3
- Sacks
- 0.5
- TFL
- 0.5
- INT
- 1
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
WMU by 12.1
Baseline WMU -12.0
Simulated Total
50.1
Baseline 50.1
Unit Edge
WMU QB
WMU Below average · MONM Below average
MONM passing vs WMU coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 170.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 7.4 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 52.2% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 4.3% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.310 |
MONM rushing vs WMU run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 106.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.2 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 8.3% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 1 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.161 |
WMU passing vs MONM coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 89.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 71.4% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 4.2 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | -0.167 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 44.4% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 221.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 276.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | +3 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.