Vegas Line
Missouri -5.5
Total 50.5
Model Projection
MIZ -2.5
MIZ 58.8% win · O/U 50.5
Value Edge
3.2 pt edge: KU
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +1.0 pts toward MIZ on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- MIZ -3.8
- KU: 3 portal additions / 0 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 90%, incoming portal talent +1.4 pts.
- MIZ: 11 portal additions / 6 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 46%, incoming portal talent +2.5 pts.
Missouri — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Kansas ranks #28 nationally allowing 111.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #11 run defense.
2Contain Yasin Willis
Kansas's top producer this season: 72 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Missouri has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Missouri converts 60.0% of third downs (#21 nationally) versus Kansas's 61.5%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Missouri is -1 in turnover margin (0 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Kansas sits at +0.
5Clear 26 points
The market total for this game is 50.5. Anything above 26 points puts Missouri on the winning side of an even split.
Kansas — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Missouri ranks #50 nationally allowing 89.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #27 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Kansas converts 61.5% of third downs (#19 nationally) versus Missouri's 60.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Kansas is +0 in turnover margin (1 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Missouri sits at -1.
4Clear 26 points
The market total for this game is 50.5. Anything above 26 points puts Kansas on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Isaiah MarshallKU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 246
- Completion %
- 73.7%
- Yards / Attempt
- 12.9
- TD : INT
- 2 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 217.2
Leading Rusher
Yasin WillisKU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 72
- Carries
- 11
- Yards / Carry
- 6.5
- Rushing TD
- 2
- Long
- 20
Primary Receiver
Nik McMillanKU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 130
- Receptions
- 6
- Yards / Catch
- 21.7
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 46
Defensive Leader
Quincy DavisKU · LB
- Tackles
- 5
- Solo
- 3
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
MIZ by 2.3
Baseline MIZ -2.5
Simulated Total
50.5
Baseline 50.5
Unit Edge
MIZ QB
KU Above average · MIZ Above average
MIZ passing vs KU coverage
| 357.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 111.0 |
| 78.8% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 5.5 |
| 10.8 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 50.0% |
| 4.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 15.0% |
| 0.928 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.034 |
MIZ rushing vs KU run defense
| 205.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 35.0 |
| 4.6 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 1.1 |
| 3.6 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 61.5% |
| 17.4% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 11 |
| 0.052 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.503 |
KU passing vs MIZ coverage
| 109.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 336.0 |
| 4.5 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 72.0% |
| 45.8% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 13.4 |
| 4.2% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 2.00:1 |
| -0.421 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 1.006 |
Efficiency & situational
| 60.0% | Third-down conversion | 61.5% |
| 562.0 | Total yards / game | 613.0 |
| 198.0 | Yards allowed / game | 146.0 |
| -1 | Turnover margin | 0 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.