Week 1 · Final
0 – 52
Vegas Line
Sacramento State -37.5
Total 56.5
Model Projection
SAC -34.0
SAC 99.5% win · O/U 56.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: MVSU
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- SAC -7.6
- SAC: 0 portal additions / 1 departures, first year under Alonzo Carter — 2021–2025 archive weighted 67%, incoming portal talent −0.4 pts.
Mississippi Valley State — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Sacramento State ranks #59 nationally allowing 161.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #49 run defense.
2Protect the turnover edge
Mississippi Valley State is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Sacramento State sits at -2.
3Clear 29 points
The market total for this game is 56.5. Anything above 29 points puts Mississippi Valley State on the winning side of an even split.
Sacramento State — Keys to Victory
1Fix the turnover margin
Sacramento State is -2 in turnover margin (2 forced, 4 lost) across 2 recorded games; Mississippi Valley State sits at +0.
2Clear 29 points
The market total for this game is 56.5. Anything above 29 points puts Sacramento State on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
SAC by 34.0
Baseline SAC -34.0
Simulated Total
56.5
Baseline 56.5
Unit Edge
SAC QB
SAC Below average · MVSU Below average
MVSU passing vs SAC coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 161.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 5.6 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 63.2% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 10.5% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.124 |
MVSU rushing vs SAC run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 86.5 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.7 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 17.5% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 14 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.158 |
SAC passing vs MVSU coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 234.5 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 58.7% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 6.3 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 2.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.103 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 35.7% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 360.5 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 247.5 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | -2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.