Week 3 · Scheduled
VS
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
SC -4.5
SC 66.0% win · O/U 60.5
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +1.1 pts toward MSST on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- SC -2.9
- SC: 6 portal additions / 6 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 62%, incoming portal talent +0.5 pts.
- MSST: 4 portal additions / 2 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 81%, incoming portal talent +1.4 pts.
Mississippi State — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
South Carolina ranks #59 nationally allowing 100.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #10 pass defense.
2Contain Jabree Coleman
South Carolina's top producer this season: 77 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Mississippi State has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Mississippi State converts 45.5% of third downs (#61 nationally) versus South Carolina's 87.5%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Mississippi State is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; South Carolina sits at +1.
5Move the ball efficiently
Mississippi State averages 762.0 total yards per game (#1 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
South Carolina — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Mississippi State ranks #84 nationally allowing 138.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #47 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
South Carolina converts 87.5% of third downs (#1 nationally) versus Mississippi State's 45.5%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
South Carolina is +1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Mississippi State sits at +0.
4Move the ball efficiently
South Carolina averages 645.0 total yards per game (#10 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Lanorris SellersSC · QB
- Passing Yds
- 270
- Completion %
- 82.6%
- Yards / Attempt
- 11.7
- TD : INT
- 3 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 224.3
Leading Rusher
Jabree ColemanSC · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 77
- Carries
- 4
- Yards / Carry
- 19.3
- Rushing TD
- 2
- Long
- 60
Primary Receiver
Donovan MurphSC · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 92
- Receptions
- 4
- Yards / Catch
- 23.0
- Receiving TD
- 2
- Long
- 37
Defensive Leader
Judge CollierSC · DB
- Tackles
- 4
- Solo
- 4
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
SC by 4.3
Baseline SC -4.5
Simulated Total
60.5
Baseline 60.5
Unit Edge
SC QB
SC Above average · MSST Above average
MSST passing vs SC coverage
| 417.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 79.0 |
| 64.3% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 3.4 |
| 9.9 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 60.9% |
| 4.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 4.3% |
| 0.540 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.030 |
MSST rushing vs SC run defense
| 345.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 100.0 |
| 9.3 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.0 |
| 4.7 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 20.0% |
| 5.6% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 4 |
| 0.834 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.140 |
SC passing vs MSST coverage
| 140.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 367.0 |
| 5.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 81.8% |
| 57.1% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 11.1 |
| 7.1% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 4.00:1 |
| -0.095 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.784 |
Efficiency & situational
| 45.5% | Third-down conversion | 87.5% |
| 762.0 | Total yards / game | 645.0 |
| 278.0 | Yards allowed / game | 179.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | +1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.