Week 2 · Final
38 – 13
Vegas Line
Mississippi State -1.5
Total 55.5
Model Projection
MSST -0.5
MSST 52.3% win · O/U 55.5
Value Edge
0.9 pt edge: MINN
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +4.6 pts toward MSST on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- MINN -1.5
- MINN: 5 portal additions / 1 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 81%, incoming portal talent +2.0 pts.
- MSST: 4 portal additions / 2 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 81%, incoming portal talent +1.4 pts.
Mississippi State — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Minnesota ranks #24 nationally allowing 51.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #7 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Mississippi State converts 45.5% of third downs (#61 nationally) versus Minnesota's 66.7%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Mississippi State is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Minnesota sits at -1.
4Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 55.5. Anything above 28 points puts Mississippi State on the winning side of an even split.
Minnesota — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Mississippi State ranks #84 nationally allowing 138.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #47 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Minnesota converts 66.7% of third downs (#10 nationally) versus Mississippi State's 45.5%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Fix the turnover margin
Minnesota is -1 in turnover margin (0 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Mississippi State sits at +0.
4Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 55.5. Anything above 28 points puts Minnesota on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
MSST by 0.6
Baseline MSST -0.5
Simulated Total
55.5
Baseline 55.5
Unit Edge
MSST QB
MINN Above average · MSST Above average
MSST passing vs MINN coverage
| 417.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 59.0 |
| 64.3% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 3.9 |
| 9.9 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 60.0% |
| 4.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 6.7% |
| 0.540 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.495 |
MSST rushing vs MINN run defense
| 345.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 51.0 |
| 9.3 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 1.8 |
| 4.7 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 26.7% |
| 5.6% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 9 |
| 0.834 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.261 |
MINN passing vs MSST coverage
| 140.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 348.0 |
| 5.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 78.8% |
| 57.1% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 10.5 |
| 7.1% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 1.00:1 |
| -0.095 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.786 |
Efficiency & situational
| 45.5% | Third-down conversion | 66.7% |
| 762.0 | Total yards / game | 495.0 |
| 278.0 | Yards allowed / game | 110.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | -1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.