Week 3 · Scheduled
VS
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
ND -17.5
ND 93.5% win · O/U 52.7
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +0.8 pts toward ND on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- ND -12.4
- ND: 7 portal additions / 4 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 65%, incoming portal talent +4.3 pts.
- MSU: 3 portal additions / 7 departures, first year under Pat Fitzgerald — 2021–2025 archive weighted 38%, incoming portal talent −3.2 pts.
Michigan State — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Notre Dame ranks #86 nationally allowing 217.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #38 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Michigan State converts 33.3% of third downs (#101 nationally) versus Notre Dame's 33.3%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Michigan State is +1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Notre Dame sits at +2.
4Move the ball efficiently
Michigan State averages 397.0 total yards per game (#72 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Notre Dame — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Michigan State ranks #74 nationally allowing 196.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #43 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Notre Dame converts 33.3% of third downs (#102 nationally) versus Michigan State's 33.3%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Notre Dame is +2 in turnover margin (2 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Michigan State sits at +1.
4Move the ball efficiently
Notre Dame averages 350.0 total yards per game (#97 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
ND by 17.3
Baseline ND -17.5
Simulated Total
52.7
Baseline 52.7
Unit Edge
ND QB
ND Above average · MSU FBS average
MSU passing vs ND coverage
| 247.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 217.0 |
| 76.5% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 7.2 |
| 7.3 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 63.3% |
| 1.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 6.7% |
| 0.338 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.266 |
MSU rushing vs ND run defense
| 150.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 67.0 |
| 3.1 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.2 |
| 2.8 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 21.4% |
| 21.3% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 6 |
| -0.157 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.173 |
ND passing vs MSU coverage
| 196.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 239.0 |
| 9.3 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 65.5% |
| 57.1% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 8.2 |
| 9.5% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 2.00:1 |
| 0.501 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.442 |
Efficiency & situational
| 33.3% | Third-down conversion | 33.3% |
| 397.0 | Total yards / game | 350.0 |
| 273.0 | Yards allowed / game | 284.0 |
| +1 | Turnover margin | +2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.