Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
MIA -7.5
MIA 75.5% win · O/U 59.9
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +0.9 pts toward MIA on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- MIA -8.9
- WAKE: 0 portal additions / 5 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 84%, incoming portal talent −4.3 pts.
- MIA: 8 portal additions / 5 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 59%, incoming portal talent +5.0 pts.
Miami — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Wake Forest ranks #93 nationally allowing 149.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #56 pass defense.
2Contain Ty Clark III
Wake Forest's top producer this season: 105 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Miami has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Miami converts 72.7% of third downs (#5 nationally) versus Wake Forest's 46.7%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Miami is -2 in turnover margin (0 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; Wake Forest sits at +1.
5Move the ball efficiently
Miami averages 549.0 total yards per game (#23 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Wake Forest — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Miami ranks #90 nationally allowing 221.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #44 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Wake Forest converts 46.7% of third downs (#57 nationally) versus Miami's 72.7%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Wake Forest is +1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Miami sits at -2.
4Move the ball efficiently
Wake Forest averages 559.0 total yards per game (#22 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Giovanni LopezWAKE · QB
- Passing Yds
- 350
- Completion %
- 65.6%
- Yards / Attempt
- 10.9
- TD : INT
- 3 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 188.4
Leading Rusher
Ty Clark IIIWAKE · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 105
- Carries
- 7
- Yards / Carry
- 15.0
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 57
Primary Receiver
Carlos HernandezWAKE · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 165
- Receptions
- 5
- Yards / Catch
- 33.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 78
Defensive Leader
Frank CusanoWAKE · LB
- Tackles
- 9
- Solo
- 2
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.5
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
MIA by 7.3
Baseline MIA -7.5
Simulated Total
59.9
Baseline 59.9
Unit Edge
MIA QB
WAKE FBS average · MIA Top 25 level
MIA passing vs WAKE coverage
| 428.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 156.0 |
| 85.7% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 4.7 |
| 12.2 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 84.8% |
| 5.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 6.1% |
| 1.072 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.067 |
MIA rushing vs WAKE run defense
| 121.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 149.0 |
| 3.8 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.1 |
| 3.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 28.6% |
| 15.8% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 7 |
| 0.049 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.057 |
WAKE passing vs MIA coverage
| 221.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 356.0 |
| 5.3 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 62.9% |
| 52.4% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 10.2 |
| 2.4% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 3.00:1 |
| 0.196 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.716 |
Efficiency & situational
| 72.7% | Third-down conversion | 46.7% |
| 549.0 | Total yards / game | 559.0 |
| 299.0 | Yards allowed / game | 305.0 |
| -2 | Turnover margin | +1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.