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Miami (OH) logo

Away · #116

Miami (OH)

1-1 · Mid-American · 14 pts

Week 1 · Final

14 – 59

Pittsburgh logo

Home · #39

Pittsburgh

2-0 · ACC · 59 pts

Sat, Sep 5, 10:30 AM MT Acrisure Stadium The CW Network

Vegas Line

Pittsburgh -16.5

Total 47.5

Model Projection

PITT -13.0

PITT 88.1% win · O/U 47.5

Value Edge

3.5 pt edge: M-OH

Total delta 0.0

Model Rationale

Shifted by +6.9 pts toward PITT on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.

Phase
Sample phase
2026 sample
2 games · 50%
Historical baseline
50%
Baseline margin
PITT -1.1
  • PITT: 1 portal additions / 3 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 87%, incoming portal talent −2.3 pts.
Miami (OH) logo

Miami (OH) — Keys to Victory

  1. 1Attack through the air

    Pittsburgh ranks #107 nationally allowing 261.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #9 run defense.

  2. 2Contain Justin Cook

    Pittsburgh's top producer this season: 50 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Miami (OH) has to take away.

  3. 3Stay ahead on third down

    Miami (OH) converts 23.1% of third downs (#121 nationally) versus Pittsburgh's 70.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.

  4. 4Fix the turnover margin

    Miami (OH) is -1 in turnover margin (0 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Pittsburgh sits at +1.

  5. 5Clear 24 points

    The market total for this game is 47.5. Anything above 24 points puts Miami (OH) on the winning side of an even split.

Pittsburgh logo

Pittsburgh — Keys to Victory

  1. 1Attack through the air

    Miami (OH) ranks #138 nationally allowing 480.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #106 run defense.

  2. 2Contain Lazaro Rogers

    Miami (OH)'s top producer this season: 21 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Pittsburgh has to take away.

  3. 3Stay ahead on third down

    Pittsburgh converts 70.0% of third downs (#6 nationally) versus Miami (OH)'s 23.1%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.

  4. 4Protect the turnover edge

    Pittsburgh is +1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Miami (OH) sits at -1.

  5. 5Clear 24 points

    The market total for this game is 47.5. Anything above 24 points puts Pittsburgh on the winning side of an even split.

Key Position Matchups

Quarterbacks

David McCombM-OH · QB

Passing Yds
240
Completion %
48.5%
Yards / Attempt
7.3
TD : INT
1 : 0
TD/INT Ratio
No INTs
Passer Rating
119.6

Mason HeintschelPITT · QB

Passing Yds
453
Completion %
75.6%
Yards / Attempt
11.0
TD : INT
7 : 0
TD/INT Ratio
No INTs
Passer Rating
224.8

Leading Rusher

Lazaro RogersM-OH · RB

Rushing Yds
21
Carries
6
Yards / Carry
3.5
Rushing TD
0
Long
8

Justin CookPITT · RB

Rushing Yds
50
Carries
1
Yards / Carry
50.0
Rushing TD
1
Long
50

Primary Receiver

Damarion WittenM-OH · WR

Receiving Yds
90
Receptions
2
Yards / Catch
45.0
Receiving TD
1
Long
75

Cataurus HicksPITT · WR

Receiving Yds
114
Receptions
5
Yards / Catch
22.8
Receiving TD
1
Long
53

Defensive Leader

CJ YoungM-OH · LB

Tackles
8
Solo
3
Sacks
0.0
TFL
0.0
INT
0

Demarco WardPITT · LB

Tackles
5
Solo
3
Sacks
0.0
TFL
0.0
INT
0

Matchup Simulator

Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.

Simulated Winner

PITT by 13.0

Baseline PITT -13.0

Simulated Total

47.5

Baseline 47.5

Unit Edge

PITT QB

PITT FBS average · M-OH FBS average

Open the full simulator

M-OH passing vs PITT coverage

261.0Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G261.0
51.4%Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed7.1
7.1Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed51.4%
1.00:1TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate5.4%
0.260EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass0.260

M-OH rushing vs PITT run defense

28.0Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G28.0
1.3Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed1.3
1.4Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate10.0%
10.0%Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss3
-0.333EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush-0.333

PITT passing vs M-OH coverage

480.0Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG480.0
10.9Yards / Target allowed vs Completion %77.3%
77.3%Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt10.9
2.3%Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio7.00:1
0.637Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass0.637

Efficiency & situational

23.1%Third-down conversion70.0%
289.0Total yards / game646.0
646.0Yards allowed / game289.0
-1Turnover margin+1

Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.