Week 3 · Scheduled
VS
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
CIN -10.0
CIN 81.9% win · O/U 52.4
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +4.7 pts toward CIN on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- CIN -1.1
- CIN: 2 portal additions / 3 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 84%, incoming portal talent −1.0 pts.
Miami (OH) — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Cincinnati ranks #105 nationally allowing 165.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #91 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Miami (OH) converts 23.1% of third downs (#121 nationally) versus Cincinnati's 41.7%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Fix the turnover margin
Miami (OH) is -1 in turnover margin (0 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Cincinnati sits at +2.
4Move the ball efficiently
Miami (OH) averages 289.0 total yards per game (#115 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Cincinnati — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Miami (OH) ranks #138 nationally allowing 480.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #106 run defense.
2Contain Lazaro Rogers
Miami (OH)'s top producer this season: 21 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Cincinnati has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Cincinnati converts 41.7% of third downs (#74 nationally) versus Miami (OH)'s 23.1%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Cincinnati is +2 in turnover margin (2 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Miami (OH) sits at -1.
5Move the ball efficiently
Cincinnati averages 339.0 total yards per game (#103 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
David McCombM-OH · QB
- Passing Yds
- 240
- Completion %
- 48.5%
- Yards / Attempt
- 7.3
- TD : INT
- 1 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 119.6
Leading Rusher
Lazaro RogersM-OH · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 21
- Carries
- 6
- Yards / Carry
- 3.5
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 8
Primary Receiver
Damarion WittenM-OH · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 90
- Receptions
- 2
- Yards / Catch
- 45.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 75
Defensive Leader
CJ YoungM-OH · LB
- Tackles
- 8
- Solo
- 3
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
CIN by 9.8
Baseline CIN -10.0
Simulated Total
52.4
Baseline 52.4
Unit Edge
CIN QB
CIN FBS average · M-OH FBS average
M-OH passing vs CIN coverage
| 261.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 223.0 |
| 51.4% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 6.4 |
| 7.1 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 51.4% |
| 1.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 11.4% |
| 0.260 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.054 |
M-OH rushing vs CIN run defense
| 28.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 165.0 |
| 1.3 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.3 |
| 1.4 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 20.0% |
| 10.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 8 |
| -0.333 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.115 |
CIN passing vs M-OH coverage
| 480.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 85.0 |
| 10.9 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 73.3% |
| 77.3% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 5.7 |
| 2.3% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 1.00:1 |
| 0.637 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.192 |
Efficiency & situational
| 23.1% | Third-down conversion | 41.7% |
| 289.0 | Total yards / game | 339.0 |
| 646.0 | Yards allowed / game | 388.0 |
| -1 | Turnover margin | +2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.