Week 2 · Final
7 – 70
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
UNM -11.5
UNM 85.0% win · O/U 47.4
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- UNM -7.3
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
Mercyhurst — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
New Mexico ranks #73 nationally allowing 119.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #2 pass defense.
2Protect the turnover edge
Mercyhurst is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; New Mexico sits at +2.
New Mexico — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
New Mexico is +2 in turnover margin (2 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Mercyhurst sits at +0.
2Move the ball efficiently
New Mexico averages 364.0 total yards per game (#94 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
UNM by 11.3
Baseline UNM -11.5
Simulated Total
47.4
Baseline 47.4
Unit Edge
UNM QB
UNM Below average · MERC Below average
MERC passing vs UNM coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 30.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 1.9 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 43.8% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 18.8% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.383 |
MERC rushing vs UNM run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 119.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 3.7 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 0.0% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 4 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.134 |
UNM passing vs MERC coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 159.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 68.0% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 6.4 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 1.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.162 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 53.8% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 364.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 149.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | +2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.