Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
GT -14.0
GT 89.3% win · O/U 48.6
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- GT -9.8
- GT: 3 portal additions / 4 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 78%, incoming portal talent +0.2 pts.
Mercer — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Georgia Tech ranks #112 nationally allowing 183.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #38 pass defense.
2Contain Justice Haynes
Georgia Tech's top producer this season: 64 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Mercer has to take away.
3Protect the turnover edge
Mercer is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Georgia Tech sits at -1.
Georgia Tech — Keys to Victory
1Fix the turnover margin
Georgia Tech is -1 in turnover margin (0 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Mercer sits at +0.
2Move the ball efficiently
Georgia Tech averages 288.0 total yards per game (#116 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Alberto MendozaGT · QB
- Passing Yds
- 237
- Completion %
- 73.9%
- Yards / Attempt
- 10.3
- TD : INT
- 0 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- —
- Passer Rating
- 160.5
Leading Rusher
Justice HaynesGT · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 64
- Carries
- 19
- Yards / Carry
- 3.4
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 11
Primary Receiver
Jordan AllenGT · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 113
- Receptions
- 8
- Yards / Catch
- 14.1
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 30
Defensive Leader
Kyle EffordGT · LB
- Tackles
- 13
- Solo
- 5
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
GT by 13.8
Baseline GT -14.0
Simulated Total
48.6
Baseline 48.6
Unit Edge
GT QB
GT FBS average · MER Below average
MER passing vs GT coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 124.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 4.6 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 51.9% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 3.7% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.071 |
MER rushing vs GT run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 183.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 3.7 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 10.9% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 6 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.017 |
GT passing vs MER coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 237.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 70.8% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 9.9 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.428 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 38.5% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 288.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 307.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | -1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.