Week 0 · Final
27 – 21
Vegas Line
UNLV -4
Total 55.5
Model Projection
UNLV -0.5
UNLV 51.9% win · O/U 55.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: MEM
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +3.0 pts toward MEM on the 2026 3-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 3 games · 75%
- Historical baseline
- 25%
- Baseline margin
- MEM -0.4
- MEM: 1 portal additions / 1 departures, first year under Charles Huff — 2021–2025 archive weighted 64%, incoming portal talent 0.0 pts.
Memphis — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
UNLV ranks #100 nationally allowing 156.5 rush yards per game — softer than their #77 pass defense.
2Contain Jai'Den Thomas
UNLV's top producer this season: 187 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Memphis has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Memphis converts 40.0% of third downs (#82 nationally) versus UNLV's 33.3%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Memphis is +1 in turnover margin (4 forced, 3 lost) across 2 recorded games; UNLV sits at +2.
5Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 55.5. Anything above 28 points puts Memphis on the winning side of an even split.
UNLV — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Memphis ranks #119 nationally allowing 308.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #85 run defense.
2Contain Jaylin Carter
Memphis's top producer this season: 280 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing UNLV has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
UNLV converts 33.3% of third downs (#104 nationally) versus Memphis's 40.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
UNLV is +2 in turnover margin (2 forced, 0 lost) across 2 recorded games; Memphis sits at +1.
5Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 55.5. Anything above 28 points puts UNLV on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Marcus StokesMEM · QB
- Passing Yds
- 411
- Completion %
- 65.9%
- Yards / Attempt
- 10.0
- TD : INT
- 4 : 2
- TD/INT Ratio
- 2.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 172.5
Jackson ArnoldUNLV · QB
- Passing Yds
- 407
- Completion %
- 60.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 7.4
- TD : INT
- 2 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 134.2
Leading Rusher
Jaylin CarterMEM · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 280
- Carries
- 34
- Yards / Carry
- 8.2
- Rushing TD
- 5
- Long
- 74
Jai'Den ThomasUNLV · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 187
- Carries
- 32
- Yards / Carry
- 5.8
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 50
Primary Receiver
Braylon BurnsideMEM · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 74
- Receptions
- 2
- Yards / Catch
- 37.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 48
Kayden McGeeUNLV · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 92
- Receptions
- 4
- Yards / Catch
- 23.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 44
Defensive Leader
Zach RuffinMEM · LB
- Tackles
- 18
- Solo
- 13
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 1.5
- INT
- 1
Jake PopeUNLV · S
- Tackles
- 19
- Solo
- 7
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
UNLV by 0.5
Baseline UNLV -0.5
Simulated Total
55.5
Baseline 55.5
Unit Edge
MEM QB
UNLV FBS average · MEM FBS average
MEM passing vs UNLV coverage
| 205.5 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 199.5 |
| 65.9% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 5.8 |
| 10.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 46.4% |
| 2.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 8.7% |
| 0.684 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.106 |
MEM rushing vs UNLV run defense
| 265.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 156.5 |
| 6.5 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.7 |
| 3.7 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 11.3% |
| 10.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 8 |
| 0.302 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.160 |
UNLV passing vs MEM coverage
| 308.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 203.5 |
| 9.1 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 58.9% |
| 67.6% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 7.3 |
| 13.2% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 2.00:1 |
| 0.133 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.011 |
Efficiency & situational
| 40.0% | Third-down conversion | 33.3% |
| 470.5 | Total yards / game | 412.0 |
| 447.0 | Yards allowed / game | 356.0 |
| +1 | Turnover margin | +2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.