Week 11 · Scheduled
VS
Vegas Line
MEM -3.5
Total 49.5
Model Projection
PK
USF 50.0% win · O/U 49.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: USF
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +1.8 pts toward USF on the 2026 9-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Current reality
- 2026 sample
- 9 games · 90%
- Historical baseline
- 10%
- Baseline margin
- MEM -2.2
- USF: 2 portal additions / 5 departures, first year under Brian Hartline — 2021–2025 archive weighted 48%, incoming portal talent −2.3 pts.
- MEM: 1 portal additions / 1 departures, first year under Charles Huff — 2021–2025 archive weighted 64%, incoming portal talent 0.0 pts.
Memphis — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
South Florida ranks #116 nationally allowing 301.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #45 run defense.
2Contain Jason Collins Jr.
South Florida's top producer this season: 59 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Memphis has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Memphis converts 40.0% of third downs (#82 nationally) versus South Florida's 38.5%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Memphis is +1 in turnover margin (4 forced, 3 lost) across 2 recorded games; South Florida sits at +3.
5Clear 25 points
The market total for this game is 49.5. Anything above 25 points puts Memphis on the winning side of an even split.
South Florida — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Memphis ranks #119 nationally allowing 308.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #85 run defense.
2Contain Jaylin Carter
Memphis's top producer this season: 280 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing South Florida has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
South Florida converts 38.5% of third downs (#89 nationally) versus Memphis's 40.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
South Florida is +3 in turnover margin (3 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Memphis sits at +1.
5Clear 25 points
The market total for this game is 49.5. Anything above 25 points puts South Florida on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Marcus StokesMEM · QB
- Passing Yds
- 411
- Completion %
- 65.9%
- Yards / Attempt
- 10.0
- TD : INT
- 4 : 2
- TD/INT Ratio
- 2.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 172.5
Michael Van Buren Jr.USF · QB
- Passing Yds
- 100
- Completion %
- 61.1%
- Yards / Attempt
- 5.6
- TD : INT
- 0 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- —
- Passer Rating
- 107.8
Leading Rusher
Jaylin CarterMEM · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 280
- Carries
- 34
- Yards / Carry
- 8.2
- Rushing TD
- 5
- Long
- 74
Jason Collins Jr.USF · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 59
- Carries
- 17
- Yards / Carry
- 3.5
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 12
Primary Receiver
Braylon BurnsideMEM · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 74
- Receptions
- 2
- Yards / Catch
- 37.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 48
Arhmad BranchUSF · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 47
- Receptions
- 5
- Yards / Catch
- 9.4
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 14
Defensive Leader
Zach RuffinMEM · LB
- Tackles
- 18
- Solo
- 13
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 1.5
- INT
- 1
Rodney HillUSF · LB
- Tackles
- 6
- Solo
- 4
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
USF by 0.0
Baseline PK
Simulated Total
49.5
Baseline 49.5
Unit Edge
MEM QB
USF FBS average · MEM FBS average
MEM passing vs USF coverage
| 205.5 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 301.0 |
| 65.9% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 6.0 |
| 10.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 62.0% |
| 2.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 2.0% |
| 0.684 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.214 |
MEM rushing vs USF run defense
| 265.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 80.0 |
| 6.5 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 3.2 |
| 3.7 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 25.0% |
| 10.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 5 |
| 0.302 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.072 |
USF passing vs MEM coverage
| 308.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 100.0 |
| 9.1 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 61.1% |
| 67.6% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 5.6 |
| 13.2% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| 0.133 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.156 |
Efficiency & situational
| 40.0% | Third-down conversion | 38.5% |
| 470.5 | Total yards / game | 208.0 |
| 447.0 | Yards allowed / game | 381.0 |
| +1 | Turnover margin | +3 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.