Week 2 · Final
20 – 38
Vegas Line
Boise State -8.5
Total 54.5
Model Projection
BOIS -5.0
BOIS 68.3% win · O/U 54.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: MEM
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +1.0 pts toward MEM on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- BOIS -1.2
- BOIS: 0 portal additions / 2 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 94%, incoming portal talent −1.5 pts.
- MEM: 1 portal additions / 1 departures, first year under Charles Huff — 2021–2025 archive weighted 64%, incoming portal talent 0.0 pts.
Memphis — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Boise State ranks #134 nationally allowing 378.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #72 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Memphis converts 40.0% of third downs (#82 nationally) versus Boise State's 26.7%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Memphis is +1 in turnover margin (4 forced, 3 lost) across 2 recorded games; Boise State sits at +1.
4Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 54.5. Anything above 28 points puts Memphis on the winning side of an even split.
Boise State — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Memphis ranks #119 nationally allowing 308.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #85 run defense.
2Contain Jaylin Carter
Memphis's top producer this season: 280 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Boise State has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Boise State converts 26.7% of third downs (#117 nationally) versus Memphis's 40.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Boise State is +1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Memphis sits at +1.
5Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 54.5. Anything above 28 points puts Boise State on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Marcus StokesMEM · QB
- Passing Yds
- 411
- Completion %
- 65.9%
- Yards / Attempt
- 10.0
- TD : INT
- 4 : 2
- TD/INT Ratio
- 2.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 172.5
Leading Rusher
Jaylin CarterMEM · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 280
- Carries
- 34
- Yards / Carry
- 8.2
- Rushing TD
- 5
- Long
- 74
Primary Receiver
Braylon BurnsideMEM · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 74
- Receptions
- 2
- Yards / Catch
- 37.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 48
Defensive Leader
Zach RuffinMEM · LB
- Tackles
- 18
- Solo
- 13
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 1.5
- INT
- 1
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
BOIS by 5.0
Baseline BOIS -5.0
Simulated Total
54.5
Baseline 54.5
Unit Edge
MEM QB
BOIS FBS average · MEM FBS average
MEM passing vs BOIS coverage
| 205.5 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 378.0 |
| 65.9% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 9.9 |
| 10.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 73.7% |
| 2.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 2.6% |
| 0.684 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.349 |
MEM rushing vs BOIS run defense
| 265.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 119.0 |
| 6.5 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.8 |
| 3.7 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 12.5% |
| 10.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 6 |
| 0.302 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.202 |
BOIS passing vs MEM coverage
| 308.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 181.0 |
| 9.1 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 51.7% |
| 67.6% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 6.2 |
| 13.2% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 3.00:1 |
| 0.133 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.291 |
Efficiency & situational
| 40.0% | Third-down conversion | 26.7% |
| 470.5 | Total yards / game | 274.0 |
| 447.0 | Yards allowed / game | 497.0 |
| +1 | Turnover margin | +1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.