Week 1 · Final
37 – 21
Vegas Line
Rutgers -29.5
Total 54.5
Model Projection
RUTG -26.0
RUTG 98.2% win · O/U 54.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: MASS
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +0.3 pts toward RUTG on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- RUTG -6.1
- RUTG: 0 portal additions / 2 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 94%, incoming portal talent −1.7 pts.
Massachusetts — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Rutgers ranks #115 nationally allowing 200.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #75 pass defense.
2Contain Antwan Raymond
Rutgers's top producer this season: 42 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Massachusetts has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Massachusetts converts 36.4% of third downs (#96 nationally) versus Rutgers's 27.3%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Massachusetts is +4 in turnover margin (4 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Rutgers sits at -4.
5Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 54.5. Anything above 28 points puts Massachusetts on the winning side of an even split.
Rutgers — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Massachusetts ranks #120 nationally allowing 319.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #10 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Rutgers converts 27.3% of third downs (#116 nationally) versus Massachusetts's 36.4%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Fix the turnover margin
Rutgers is -4 in turnover margin (0 forced, 4 lost) across 1 recorded games; Massachusetts sits at +4.
4Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 54.5. Anything above 28 points puts Rutgers on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Dylan LonerganRUTG · QB
- Passing Yds
- 242
- Completion %
- 55.2%
- Yards / Attempt
- 8.3
- TD : INT
- 2 : 3
- TD/INT Ratio
- 0.67:1
- Passer Rating
- 127.3
Leading Rusher
Antwan RaymondRUTG · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 42
- Carries
- 14
- Yards / Carry
- 3.0
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 5
Primary Receiver
KJ DuffRUTG · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 196
- Receptions
- 9
- Yards / Catch
- 21.8
- Receiving TD
- 3
- Long
- 78
Defensive Leader
Sean AllisonRUTG · LB
- Tackles
- 8
- Solo
- 7
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
RUTG by 26.0
Baseline RUTG -26.0
Simulated Total
54.5
Baseline 54.5
Unit Edge
RUTG QB
RUTG FBS average · MASS FBS average
MASS passing vs RUTG coverage
| 197.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 197.0 |
| 86.4% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 9.0 |
| 9.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 86.4% |
| 3.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 4.5% |
| 0.647 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.647 |
MASS rushing vs RUTG run defense
| 200.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 200.0 |
| 4.9 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.9 |
| 3.4 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 17.5% |
| 17.5% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 4 |
| 0.171 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.171 |
RUTG passing vs MASS coverage
| 319.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 319.0 |
| 8.4 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 57.9% |
| 57.9% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 8.4 |
| 13.2% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 1.00:1 |
| 0.483 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.483 |
Efficiency & situational
| 36.4% | Third-down conversion | 27.3% |
| 397.0 | Total yards / game | 349.0 |
| 349.0 | Yards allowed / game | 397.0 |
| +4 | Turnover margin | -4 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.