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Maryland logo

Away · #36

Maryland

2-0 · Big Ten · 38 pts

Week 2 · Final

38 – 14

UConn logo

Home · #80

UConn

1-1 · Independent · 14 pts

Sat, Sep 12, 1:30 PM MT Pratt & Whitney Stadium CBSSN

Vegas Line

Maryland -12.5

Total 52.5

Model Projection

MD -9.0

MD 80.0% win · O/U 52.5

Value Edge

3.5 pt edge: CONN

Total delta 0.0

Model Rationale

Shifted by +4.8 pts toward MD on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.

Phase
Sample phase
2026 sample
2 games · 50%
Historical baseline
50%
Baseline margin
MD -0.7
  • CONN: 0 portal additions / 1 departures, first year under Jason Candle — 2021–2025 archive weighted 67%, incoming portal talent −0.4 pts.
  • MD: 1 portal additions / 3 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 87%, incoming portal talent −1.3 pts.
Maryland logo

Maryland — Keys to Victory

  1. 1Attack through the air

    UConn ranks #51 nationally allowing 145.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #34 run defense.

  2. 2Contain Kalieb Osborne

    UConn's top producer this season: 90 rushing yards (QB). Their production line is the first thing Maryland has to take away.

  3. 3Stay ahead on third down

    Maryland converts 57.1% of third downs (#27 nationally) versus UConn's 50.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.

  4. 4Protect the turnover edge

    Maryland is +3 in turnover margin (3 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; UConn sits at -2.

  5. 5Clear 27 points

    The market total for this game is 52.5. Anything above 27 points puts Maryland on the winning side of an even split.

UConn logo

UConn — Keys to Victory

  1. 1Attack through the air

    Maryland ranks #9 nationally allowing 75.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #7 run defense.

  2. 2Contain DeJuan Williams

    Maryland's top producer this season: 116 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing UConn has to take away.

  3. 3Stay ahead on third down

    UConn converts 50.0% of third downs (#53 nationally) versus Maryland's 57.1%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.

  4. 4Fix the turnover margin

    UConn is -2 in turnover margin (0 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; Maryland sits at +3.

  5. 5Clear 27 points

    The market total for this game is 52.5. Anything above 27 points puts UConn on the winning side of an even split.

Key Position Matchups

Quarterbacks

Malik WashingtonMD · QB

Passing Yds
186
Completion %
61.3%
Yards / Attempt
6.0
TD : INT
1 : 0
TD/INT Ratio
No INTs
Passer Rating
122.3

Kalieb OsborneCONN · QB

Passing Yds
265
Completion %
73.1%
Yards / Attempt
10.2
TD : INT
2 : 1
TD/INT Ratio
2.00:1
Passer Rating
176.4

Leading Rusher

DeJuan WilliamsMD · RB

Rushing Yds
116
Carries
3
Yards / Carry
38.7
Rushing TD
2
Long
94

Kalieb OsborneCONN · QB

Rushing Yds
90
Carries
8
Yards / Carry
11.3
Rushing TD
2
Long
30

Primary Receiver

Na'eem Abdul-Rahim GladdingMD · WR

Receiving Yds
57
Receptions
6
Yards / Catch
9.5
Receiving TD
1
Long
20

Javon BrownCONN · WR

Receiving Yds
92
Receptions
6
Yards / Catch
15.3
Receiving TD
1
Long
29

Defensive Leader

Trey ReddickMD · LB

Tackles
5
Solo
2
Sacks
0.0
TFL
0.5
INT
0

Jalil MartinCONN · DB

Tackles
5
Solo
2
Sacks
0.0
TFL
0.0
INT
0

Matchup Simulator

Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.

Simulated Winner

MD by 9.0

Baseline MD -9.0

Simulated Total

52.5

Baseline 52.5

Unit Edge

MD QB

CONN FBS average · MD FBS average

Open the full simulator

MD passing vs CONN coverage

281.0Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G145.0
65.8%Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed3.5
7.4Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed50.0%
2.00:1TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate4.8%
0.280EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass-0.332

MD rushing vs CONN run defense

365.0Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G64.0
9.1Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed2.1
3.8Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate50.0%
17.6%Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss4
0.556EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush-0.185

CONN passing vs MD coverage

75.0Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG370.0
3.9Yards / Target allowed vs Completion %75.8%
52.6%Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt11.2
26.3%Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio1.50:1
-0.038Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass0.597

Efficiency & situational

57.1%Third-down conversion50.0%
646.0Total yards / game671.0
85.0Yards allowed / game209.0
+3Turnover margin-2

Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.