Week 3 · Scheduled
VS
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
MRSH -2.0
MRSH 58.4% win · O/U 51.3
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +0.9 pts toward MRSH on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- MRSH -3.8
- MOST: 0 portal additions / 0 departures, first year under Casey Woods — 2021–2025 archive weighted 70%, incoming portal talent 0.0 pts.
- MRSH: 0 portal additions / 2 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 94%, incoming portal talent −1.1 pts.
Marshall — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Missouri State ranks #122 nationally allowing 236.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #110 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Marshall converts 9.1% of third downs (#133 nationally) versus Missouri State's 10.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Fix the turnover margin
Marshall is -2 in turnover margin (0 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; Missouri State sits at -2.
4Move the ball efficiently
Marshall averages 147.0 total yards per game (#134 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Missouri State — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Marshall ranks #121 nationally allowing 324.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #103 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Missouri State converts 10.0% of third downs (#132 nationally) versus Marshall's 9.1%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Fix the turnover margin
Missouri State is -2 in turnover margin (1 forced, 3 lost) across 1 recorded games; Marshall sits at -2.
4Move the ball efficiently
Missouri State averages 67.0 total yards per game (#138 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
MRSH by 2.2
Baseline MRSH -2.0
Simulated Total
51.3
Baseline 51.3
Unit Edge
MRSH QB
MOST Below average · MRSH Below average
MRSH passing vs MOST coverage
| 103.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 269.0 |
| 67.9% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 7.1 |
| 3.7 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 65.8% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 5.3% |
| 0.169 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.450 |
MRSH rushing vs MOST run defense
| 44.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 236.0 |
| 1.7 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 5.0 |
| 0.6 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 11.4% |
| 41.7% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 4 |
| -0.465 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.151 |
MOST passing vs MRSH coverage
| 324.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 30.0 |
| 12.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 47.1% |
| 74.1% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 1.8 |
| 3.7% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| 1.403 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | -0.197 |
Efficiency & situational
| 9.1% | Third-down conversion | 10.0% |
| 147.0 | Total yards / game | 67.0 |
| 487.0 | Yards allowed / game | 505.0 |
| -2 | Turnover margin | -2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.