Week 3 · Scheduled
VS
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
BAY -11.5
BAY 85.2% win · O/U 58.9
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +5.8 pts toward BAY on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- BAY -1.6
- BAY: 4 portal additions / 6 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 68%, incoming portal talent −1.4 pts.
Louisiana Tech — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Baylor ranks #105 nationally allowing 259.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #78 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Louisiana Tech converts 63.6% of third downs (#17 nationally) versus Baylor's 31.8%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Louisiana Tech is +1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Baylor sits at +1.
4Move the ball efficiently
Louisiana Tech averages 528.0 total yards per game (#29 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Baylor — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Louisiana Tech ranks #48 nationally allowing 86.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #4 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Baylor converts 31.8% of third downs (#108 nationally) versus Louisiana Tech's 63.6%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Baylor is +1 in turnover margin (3 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; Louisiana Tech sits at +1.
4Move the ball efficiently
Baylor averages 436.0 total yards per game (#57 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
BAY by 11.4
Baseline BAY -11.5
Simulated Total
58.9
Baseline 58.9
Unit Edge
LT QB
BAY FBS average · LT FBS average
LT passing vs BAY coverage
| 296.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 259.0 |
| 77.3% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 7.4 |
| 13.5 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 74.3% |
| 6.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 14.3% |
| 1.473 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.108 |
LT rushing vs BAY run defense
| 232.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 130.0 |
| 6.3 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 3.2 |
| 4.5 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 22.9% |
| 7.7% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 11 |
| 0.716 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.091 |
BAY passing vs LT coverage
| 43.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 333.0 |
| 2.7 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 50.0% |
| 31.3% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 6.2 |
| 6.3% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 2.00:1 |
| 0.498 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.309 |
Efficiency & situational
| 63.6% | Third-down conversion | 31.8% |
| 528.0 | Total yards / game | 436.0 |
| 129.0 | Yards allowed / game | 389.0 |
| +1 | Turnover margin | +1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.