Week 2 · Final
14 – 48
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
MOST -10.5
MOST 83.2% win · O/U 49.8
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- MOST -6.4
- MOST: 0 portal additions / 0 departures, first year under Casey Woods — 2021–2025 archive weighted 70%, incoming portal talent 0.0 pts.
Lindenwood — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Missouri State ranks #122 nationally allowing 236.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #110 pass defense.
2Protect the turnover edge
Lindenwood is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Missouri State sits at -2.
Missouri State — Keys to Victory
1Fix the turnover margin
Missouri State is -2 in turnover margin (1 forced, 3 lost) across 1 recorded games; Lindenwood sits at +0.
2Move the ball efficiently
Missouri State averages 67.0 total yards per game (#138 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
MOST by 10.4
Baseline MOST -10.5
Simulated Total
49.8
Baseline 49.8
Unit Edge
MOST QB
MOST Below average · LIN Below average
LIN passing vs MOST coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 269.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 7.1 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 65.8% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 5.3% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.450 |
LIN rushing vs MOST run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 236.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 5.0 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 11.4% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 4 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.151 |
MOST passing vs LIN coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 30.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 47.1% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 1.8 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | -0.197 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 10.0% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 67.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 505.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | -2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.