Week 1 · Final
13 – 20
Vegas Line
James Madison -6
Total 50.5
Model Projection
JMU -2.5
JMU 59.5% win · O/U 50.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: LIB
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +0.8 pts toward LIB on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- LIB -0.9
- JMU: 1 portal additions / 4 departures, first year under Billy Napier — 2021–2025 archive weighted 54%, incoming portal talent −1.7 pts.
Liberty — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
James Madison ranks #93 nationally allowing 230.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #53 run defense.
2Contain JC Evans
James Madison's top producer this season: 69 rushing yards (QB). Their production line is the first thing Liberty has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Liberty converts 43.8% of third downs (#66 nationally) versus James Madison's 40.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Liberty is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; James Madison sits at +0.
5Clear 26 points
The market total for this game is 50.5. Anything above 26 points puts Liberty on the winning side of an even split.
James Madison — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Liberty ranks #108 nationally allowing 173.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #33 pass defense.
2Contain Kam Davis
Liberty's top producer this season: 51 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing James Madison has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
James Madison converts 40.0% of third downs (#81 nationally) versus Liberty's 43.8%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
James Madison is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Liberty sits at +0.
5Clear 26 points
The market total for this game is 50.5. Anything above 26 points puts James Madison on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Deshawn PurdieLIB · QB
- Passing Yds
- 230
- Completion %
- 63.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 8.5
- TD : INT
- 1 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 146.7
JC EvansJMU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 61
- Completion %
- 77.8%
- Yards / Attempt
- 6.8
- TD : INT
- 1 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 171.4
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Makai JacksonLIB · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 73
- Receptions
- 3
- Yards / Catch
- 24.3
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 34
Noah GreviousJMU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 39
- Receptions
- 4
- Yards / Catch
- 9.8
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 15
Defensive Leader
Derrell FarrarLIB · LB
- Tackles
- 7
- Solo
- 3
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.5
- INT
- 0
Jayon HarveyJMU · S
- Tackles
- 8
- Solo
- 6
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
JMU by 2.5
Baseline JMU -2.5
Simulated Total
50.5
Baseline 50.5
Unit Edge
LIB QB
JMU Below average · LIB FBS average
LIB passing vs JMU coverage
| 230.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 230.0 |
| 63.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 8.5 |
| 8.5 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 63.0% |
| 1.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 3.7% |
| 0.244 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.244 |
LIB rushing vs JMU run defense
| 91.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 91.0 |
| 2.4 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.4 |
| 2.3 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 13.5% |
| 13.5% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 3 |
| -0.116 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.116 |
JMU passing vs LIB coverage
| 118.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 118.0 |
| 6.6 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 66.7% |
| 66.7% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 6.6 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 1.00:1 |
| 0.392 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.392 |
Efficiency & situational
| 43.8% | Third-down conversion | 40.0% |
| 321.0 | Total yards / game | 291.0 |
| 291.0 | Yards allowed / game | 321.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | 0 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.